The Iranian regime is attempting too regain the initiative after more than two weeks of bloody, suppressed protests that are paralyzing the contry. Thousands of people have been summoned to Tehran and other cities for a counter-demonstration in support of the Islamic Republic, but a diplomatic channel with the United States has also been activated, confirmed by Donald Trump, in an attempt to defuse U.S. threats of military intervention.
Though, the American president has for now decided to strike the ayatollahs with secondary tariffs, which risk strangling the already struggling Iranian economy: “Effective instantly – he announced on Truth Social – any country that engages in commercial transactions with the Islamic Republic of Iran will be required to pay a 25% tariff on all transactions made with the United States. This order – he warned – is final and binding.” “The Islamic Republic of Iran does not seek war, but is fully prepared for war,” warned Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while simultaneously occurring opening up to negotiations provided that they are “fair, with equal rights and based on mutual respect.” Araghchi also reported opening a “interaction channel with U.S. President’s special envoy” Steve Witkoff. According to Axios, Tehran wants to de-escalate tensions with Washington or at least buy time. Trump said there is even “a meeting” being prepared between representatives of the two countries, which have no direct diplomatic relations.
“The iranian leadership has called” on Saturday, the tycoon announced, while still keeping pressure on the ayatollahs: the U.S.may “have to act before a meeting”, was the warning before the declaration of the secondary tariffs, while the American army is evaluating “very concrete” options for military intervention. These options include raids or cyberattacks. The Iranian government has shown a completely different attitude towards Europe. The Foreign Ministry announced the summoning of representatives of Italy,Great Britain,France and Germany to condemn their governments’ support for the “rioters.” This comes as the European Parliament has banned access to all Iranian representatives.
The ambassadors or chargés d’affaires of Berlin, Paris, Rome and London were reportedly shown images that, according to the regime, documented violent actions by the protesters, with a request to transmit them to their respective ministers and “withdraw official statements supporting” the protests. This was the official reconstruction provided by Tehran for domestic public consumption, while European diplomatic sources spoke instead of a simple “briefing” on the situation with foreign heads of mission. This ostentatious display of force can be read as an attempt by the regime to show itself strong within a country that is increasingly boiling over. To fuel this narrative, the authorities called loyal citizens to the square, who according to images released by state television flooded the center of Tehran and other cities to support the government “against terrorism” and pay tribute to security forces killed during the protests.
Rallies praised by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who described them as a “warning” to the U.S. The regime has received renewed support from China and Russia, which in particular has offered to “coordinate positions to ensure security.” As for the real toll of the demonstrations, the persistent internet blockade decided by the authorities makes updates complex. The government assures that the situation on the disorder front “is now under total control,” and yet the number of victims continues to increase day after day, with reports varying depending on the source. The Norwegian-based NGO “iran Human Rights” reports at least 648 deaths since December 28, with thousands injured and ten thousand arrests. According to the National Council of Resistance of Iran and the Mohammadi Foundation, the death toll is in the thousands. And for those who continue to protest, the future remains hanging by a thread: those who manage to connect to the world through Starlink risk being identified by the regime. And the penalty for sabotage is the death penalty.
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