China’s Nuclear Arsenal Rapidly Expanding, Raising Global Concerns

China is rapidly increasing its nuclear warhead stockpile, sparking worries worldwide. New research reveals the pace of this expansion, potentially reshaping global power dynamics. This build-up is occurring at a rate faster than previously anticipated, generating unease among international observers.

China’s Growing Nuclear Stockpile

A recent report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates that China currently possesses at least 600 nuclear warheads. The study estimates that the country has added around 100 warheads to its arsenal annually since 2023. At this rate, the nation could amass 1,500 warheads by 2035, nearly equaling the combined active stockpiles of the United States and Russia.

When asked about the report, foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun declined to comment directly. However, he stated, China has always adhered to the nuclear strategy of self-defense, always maintained its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and has not participated in the arms race. Guo added that China does not plan to be the first to use nuclear weapons and will not threaten non-nuclear states.

The U.S. government approved a fresh nuclear strategy last year, focusing on the growing threat from China. Analysts are also observing the construction of numerous facilities for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) across the country, including in desert regions and mountainous areas.

Global Implications

The world’s total number of nuclear weapons had been declining since the Cold War’s conclusion. However, this trend is ending, and deployment is increasing. The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the cold war, is coming to an end, stated Hans M. Kristensen, an associate senior fellow at SIPRI.

China’s growing nuclear capacity is especially concerning for Taiwan, a self-governing island that China claims as its own. Some Chinese scholars argue that a strong nuclear deterrent could deter third-party intervention in a conflict over the island. Recent data shows that, as of early 2024, Russia had 4,377 deployed warheads, while the US had 3,708, a significant difference from China’s current estimate. (Arms Control Association).

Deterrence and Diplomacy

While the U.S. and Russia hold the majority of the global nuclear stockpile, China’s rapid expansion is reshaping the landscape. The authors of the report also noted a decrease in warheads being dismantled each year, which adds to the overall increase in active weapons.

The current state of affairs highlights the need for international discussions. The goal would be to create stability, limit the possibility of conflict, and hopefully slow down the increasing nuclear build-up.