As European defense strategies evolve, a important question looms: can closer cooperation with Turkey bolster the continent’s security? With NATO defense ministers convening in Antalya, Turkey, in preparation for the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague, Turkey’s role is under intense scrutiny.

The Shifting Sands of European Security

Turkey,a major NATO member but not part of the European Union,seeks reciprocal benefits for enhanced military collaboration. The need for a robust European defense has become increasingly urgent amid rising tensions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments.

Turkish President Erdogan recently stated, A safe Europe without Turkey is unthinkable. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has echoed this sentiment, urging European leaders to mend ties with Turkey. He emphasized that Europe cannot afford to ignore Turkey in the face of growing Russian threats.

Expert Perspectives on Turkey’s Role

Defense expert Sinan Ulgen argues that Turkey’s involvement is essential,especially given the unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy under a potential trump management. I can’t think of a reason why that is not a good idea, Ulgen said, highlighting Turkey’s extensive military experience.

after the US, Turkey has the largest army within NATO. The Turkish army has a large amount of men that are ready for combat because they have experience with the fight against terrorism and military operations in Syria and Iraq.

Sinan Ulgen,Defense Expert

Ulgen also emphasized the strength of Turkey’s defense industry,noting its capacity to produce weapons,ammunition,and armed drones. He added that Turkey’s consistent investment in its defense capabilities makes it a valuable contributor to European security.

The Inevitable Cooperation

Ulgen stresses the urgency of integrating Turkey into European defense structures, given the uncertain future of American support and the potential for increased Russian aggression. Analyst Asli Aydintasbas from the Brookings Institution agrees, viewing cooperation with Turkey as inevitable, especially as Europe transitions to a war economy.

European countries do not have sufficient production capacity to make arms components. Turkey can do that. This way Europe can increase weapons production faster, Aydintasbas explained.

Dilemmas and diplomatic Challenges

Despite the strategic advantages, military cooperation with Turkey presents significant challenges. Relations between the EU and Turkey have deteriorated in recent years due to disagreements over issues like Cyprus, gas drilling in the Mediterranean, and concerns about human rights and authoritarianism under Erdogan’s leadership. These issues have stalled Turkey’s EU accession process.

The Grain Deal and Geopolitical Balancing Act

As the war in Ukraine, these long-standing issues have taken a backseat as Europe seeks to maintain Turkey’s alignment. Aydintasbas notes that Europe does not want to push Turkey towards Russia or China. They want to keep Turkey on board. Turkey’s unique position as a NATO member that has not severed ties with Russia has allowed it to play a crucial mediating role, exemplified by the 2022 grain deal.

Turkey’s potential role in facilitating truce talks between Russia and Ukraine further underscores its importance on the geopolitical stage.

Erdogan’s Perspective and Domestic Considerations

The muted EU response to the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key political rival of Erdogan, highlights the delicate balance europe is trying to strike. The arrest, which sparked unrest and demonstrations, has reportedly led to a decline in support for Erdogan within Turkey.

Aydintasbas suggests that this moment is opportune for the Turkish president. It is not only good for his image abroad but also in the interior. Because one thing that turks like to see is that their leaders play an international role. It’s about prestige. it’s about the recovery of the grandeur of Turkey, which they are very proud of.

The Price of Cooperation: What Turkey Wants

Erdogan has made it clear that military cooperation will require concessions. Aydintasbas believes that Erdogan seeks an end to Turkey’s isolation within europe and desires renewed invitations to European cities. More concretely, he may push for revitalizing the economic relationship with Europe, including improvements to the Customs Union and visa-free travel for Turkish citizens.