CARACAS – Venezuela faces a future defined by escalating tensions and a deepening humanitarian crisis, according to a new analysis, as the Maduro regime leverages support from Russia and China to withstand international pressure. A “Base Scenario” outlined in the report predicts continued political instability, economic hardship, and a persistent migration crisis, even as the possibility of limited military intervention by the United States remains a looming threat.
The analysis highlights Venezuela’s deepening ties with Russia, wich has established joint investment schedules until 2030 in critical sectors like oil and mining. These relationships, alongside Chinese interests in Venezuelan infrastructure, are described as a geopolitical “insurance policy” for the regime, creating a mutual deterrence that limits the scope of potential U.S. action. This dynamic is expected to guarantee regime continuity, even in the face of limited coercion.
Ordinary Venezuelans will likely experience “deepening hopelessness and the persistence of the humanitarian crisis,” marked by poverty, hunger, and failing public services. High inflation is projected to continue, perhaps reaching 682% in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF also projects a 2% GDP contraction for Venezuela in 2025, further hindering economic recovery and exacerbating social misery.
The report concludes that external pressure to date has only served to consolidate the Maduro regime’s power, and the ongoing migration crisis, fueled by poverty and hunger, will remain a defining feature of the country’s future.
