Trump’s Evolving Stance on Russia and Ukraine

President Trump’s second term has seen a notable shift in his approach to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Initially, his rhetoric often aligned with Russia’s viewpoint. Though, recent developments suggest a more critical stance towards Russia and increased engagement with the Ukrainian goverment.

A “Friendly” call Between Leaders

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office characterized a recent phone conversation with President Trump as friendly. This marks the second positive exchange between the two leaders, signaling a potential thaw in their relationship. The image of Trump and Zelenskyy together in the Vatican courtyard before Pope Francis’ funeral further supports this shift.

Zelenskyy emphasized the need for a durable ceasefire that can be enforced, contrasting it with Russia’s short-lived, self-declared ceasefire, which Ukraine claims was violated hundreds of times.

Washington’s Perspective: Sanctions and Skepticism

President Trump addressed the ceasefire on Truth Social, stating, If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions. He reiterated his desire for a 30-day ceasefire, a proposal accepted by Ukraine but rejected by Russia.

Despite this change in tone, skepticism remains regarding a fundamental shift in U.S. policy. Andrew Weiss, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, questions Trump’s commitment to pressuring Russia, stating:

There’s no indication at this point that donald Trump, even if he’s frustrated by Vladimir Putin’s slow walking, intends to put serious pressure on Russia.

Andrew Weiss, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Minerals Deal: A win for Ukraine?

A minerals deal between the U.S.and Ukraine, after initial resistance from Kyiv, has been ratified by the ukrainian parliament. The revised agreement is considered more favorable to Ukraine, granting it greater leverage over its mineral wealth.

However,concerns persist. Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, a Ukrainian lawmaker, voiced reservations:

It doesn’t have any security guarantees, and then there is not even reference to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And sadly, the government didn’t want to come and give us the answers on the questions we had.

Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Ukrainian Lawmaker

Despite these concerns, the deal was approved, driven by the need to maintain the U.S. as a strategic partner.

Military Aid: A Sticking Point

The prospect of additional U.S. military aid to Ukraine remains uncertain. President Trump continues to oppose further assistance, and existing funding is dwindling. While Europe may increase its support and Ukraine is enhancing its domestic weapons production, a U.S. cutoff would have significant consequences.

The loss of U.S. weapons, especially specialized systems like Patriot missile interceptors, would be difficult to replace.The transfer of a Patriot system from Israel to Ukraine has been approved, highlighting the critical role these systems play in defending against Russian missile attacks.

The situation on the ground remains dire. As fighting intensifies during the summer months, ukrainians yearn for normalcy. The story of women wounded while attempting to plant potatoes during Russia’s ceasefire underscores the deep-seated distrust of Russia and the desire for U.S. support in enforcing peace.

The “What If”: A U.S. Walk Away

President Trump has threatened to withdraw U.S. support if his desired ceasefire is not achieved. While the specifics remain unclear, such a move could involve ending military assistance and diplomatic efforts.

A U.S. withdrawal would likely benefit Russia, which believes it can outlast Ukraine and that Western support will eventually wane. President Putin may be willing to negotiate a ceasefire on his terms, including recognizing Russian control over occupied territories. However, he may also be prepared to continue the war, betting on a long-term victory.

The prevailing view is that Putin is playing for time, that Russia is bigger and stronger then Ukraine and can outlast it, and Ukraine’s Western support will dwindle over time. In essence, Putin may think, heads, I win; tails, Ukraine loses.