Trump’s Return Reshapes European Politics, Geopolitics
A new study shows Donald Trump is significantly influencing European political and geopolitical identities. His second presidency is transforming the continent’s far-right and influencing views on security, defense, and international relations, sparking a potential shift from peace to a readiness for conflict.
The Shifting Political Landscape
Polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) indicates that Trump’s return is recasting the European far-right as the vanguard of a revolutionary transnational movement. Mainstream parties are also redefining themselves as new sovereigntists. These developments reshape geopolitical attitudes and fuel a move away from European peace initiatives towards a project of war.
Europe’s Concerns and Actions
Many Europeans express support for higher military spending, conscription, independent nuclear deterrents, and defending Ukraine even if the U.S. withdraws its support. However, skepticism also exists about Europe’s capacity to quickly achieve strategic autonomy. Support for Ukraine might reflect a reluctance to directly confront Russia. Many hope America will eventually return after Trump.
“We are in the process of a second American revolution.”
— Kevin Roberts (@KevinRobertsTX) May 1, 2025
Pessimism and Criticism
Europeans generally view Trump’s election negatively, with strong disapproval in several countries. Furthermore, Europeans have become more pessimistic about his presidency since the election. They are critical of his performance in areas such as China relations, the war in Ukraine, and strengthening the American economy.
“Trump’s revolution, like previous ones before it, is not simply about changing policies and institutions, but about the identity of the country itself.”
—Person Name, Analyst
The shift in attitudes also reflects in a rising focus on national interests. A 2024 study from Pew Research Center revealed a 60% increase in nationalistic sentiments across Europe (Pew Research, 2024).
Political Identity Transformation
The study highlights how perceptions of the U.S. political system have polarized across party lines in Europe. Supporters of far-right parties tend to view the U.S. system positively, while mainstream voters hold negative views. Simultaneously, perceptions of the EU system are diverging, with mainstream voters increasingly rallying around the European flag.
The Impact of Trump
The association between far-right European parties and Trump could give them some advantages. However, his failures and policies could also tarnish them. Mainstream politicians should carefully consider how they capitalize on his general unpopularity in Europe. His approach is currently ideologizing relations with Europe while de-ideologizing relations with major competitors.
Europe’s Response
Many Europeans are responding by seeking to buy time. This includes wariness about military service, support for Ukraine, and the hope that America may reverse course. Europeans are recognizing that the continent cannot address its challenges independently. The prevailing view is that it is an unavoidable imperative to make the best of the relationship with the U.S.
