The Looming Threat: Preparing for a new Era of total War
In late 2023, a stark warning emerged from federal agents investigating a seemingly isolated incident in Littleton, Massachusetts: Chinese state-backed operators had quietly compromised the town’s water system, establishing a foothold for potential disruption. This wasn’t an act of espionage or theft, but a strategic pre-positioning for leverage – the ability to sow chaos within the United States and deter action abroad. This incident, coupled with the escalating activity of groups like Volt Typhoon, signals a risky shift in the nature of conflict, demanding a essential re-evaluation of U.S. national security strategy.
The rise of Pre-Positioned Attacks and the Volt Typhoon Threat
The compromise in Littleton was not an isolated event. In February 2024, U.S. federal agencies revealed details about Volt Typhoon, a Chinese state-sponsored hacking group active since at least 2021 [[2]]. This group has infiltrated critical infrastructure networks across the communications, energy, transportation, water, and government sectors. Utilizing “living off the land” techniques – blending into legitimate network activity – Volt Typhoon maintains stealth and prolonged access. Targets have included the Port of Houston and New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, employing similar intrusion methods characterized by stealthy access, exploitation of standard administrative tools like PowerShell and Windows Management Instrumentation, and a focus on pre-positioning for future attacks.
This pre-positioning is a key indicator of a broader strategic shift by Beijing. Rather than conventional espionage, China appears to be preparing to wage war against entire systems, aiming to paralyze an adversary by attacking the foundational networks that underpin modern life. This contrasts with the approaches of actors like Iran and Russia, who often prioritize ransomware, wipers, and disinformation campaigns.
The return of “Total War” and the Blurring of Peace and Conflict
This evolving threat landscape reflects what former Assistant Secretary of Defense Mara Karlin has termed “the return of total war.” This concept signifies a mobilization of entire societies and economies around war efforts, where the lines between peace and conflict become increasingly blurred. In this new reality, domestic crisis management becomes the first theater of conflict, with the civilian backbone of national defense – data centers, pipelines, hospitals, and telecom exchanges – becoming prime targets.
The U.S. has been slow to adapt to this paradigm shift. While adversaries are actively preparing the battlefield, Washington has yet to fully catch up. A complete strategy of “total defense” is urgently needed, one that closes the gap between national security and daily life, and integrates federal, state, local, and private sector efforts to both prevent attacks and mitigate their fallout. Failure to do so risks a future where conflict begins not with a traditional act of war, but with the silent disruption of critical infrastructure.
Recognizing the Threat and Initial Responses
The U.S. government has begun to acknowledge the threat posed by pre-positioned attacks. The 2022 National Defense Strategy introduced the concept of “deterrence by resilience,” emphasizing the importance of strengthening the nation’s ability to absorb, adapt to, and recover from attacks. This has lead to directives from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA),the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),the Transportation Security Administration (TSA),and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to establish new cybersecurity performance goals,mandatory reporting rules,and incident-response systems.
However, thes efforts have been fragmented and uneven. Critical infrastructure, especially the electric grid’s industrial control systems, frequently enough relies on outdated hardware and unencrypted communications, creating critically important vulnerabilities. A 2025 report from the Cyberspace Solarium Commission 2.0 warned of an “across-the-board retreat” in federal cyber-posture, highlighting a concerning erosion of progress. Government shutdowns and staffing shortages, as seen in October 2025, further exacerbate the problem, leading to a surge in phishing and credential attacks.
A Conceptual Flaw: Outdated Understanding of Coercion
A fundamental flaw in the U.S. approach lies in an outdated understanding of coercion. Deterrence strategies rooted in the Cold War assumed clear boundaries between peace and war, focusing on the threat of nuclear retaliation. This framework is ill-suited to today’s “gray-zone” campaigns that exploit civilian systems before open conflict begins. Unlike the Soviet Union, modern adversaries have already embedded themselves within civilian networks, rendering traditional retaliation less effective. Deterrence now requires making aggression too unprofitable to even attempt.
The Cold War, however, offers a valuable lesson: it was the last time the U.S. mobilized it’s society for large-scale confrontation. Civil defense drills, public preparedness campaigns, and a national ethos of resilience were commonplace. This ethos has faded, replaced by a focus on nuclear deterrence and overseas counterterrorism operations.
Learning from Global Examples of Resilience
Other democracies facing immediate threats have demonstrated the importance of whole-of-society readiness. Finland’s “comprehensive security” model, formalized in 2010, coordinates hundreds of public and private organizations in nationwide preparedness exercises. Sweden revived its total defense system after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, providing citizens with guidance on responding to various disruptions.Poland has expanded its territorial defense units, linking national defense with community resilience.Japan integrates resilience education into school curricula,fostering critical thinking and civic responsibility.
The U.S. should emulate these examples, cultivating a resilient public capable of contributing to a total defense effort. This requires a shift from solely relying on government action to actively engaging citizens in national security.
hardening targets and Building a Connected Defense System
Strengthening national security requires a systematic effort to block malicious actors’ access to critical infrastructure.This necessitates a coordinated campaign led by the Departments of homeland Security and Energy to audit and upgrade control systems, replacing foreign-sourced or compromised components. Restrictions should be placed on high-risk vendors, particularly Chinese suppliers of critical equipment. Economic and investment regulations must be tightened to prevent sanctioned firms from re-entering the U.S. market through shell companies.
Pre-positioning operations should be treated as acts of readiness for larger attacks, triggering automatic consequences such as offensive cyber-actions and economic penalties. A National Resilience Council, with budget alignment authority, is needed to coordinate funding and ensure strategic alignment across agencies. This council should set measurable performance goals, coordinate grant criteria, and conduct annual reviews to identify gaps in preparedness.
While centralized authority is important, the federal government should focus on lifeline functions, incentivizing state and local governments to lead regional preparedness efforts. States like Colorado,Louisiana,and New Jersey have already benefited from appointing resilience officers to coordinate cross-agency responses to crises.
The Importance of Public-Private Partnerships and citizen Engagement
Effective resilience requires strong public-private partnerships. The federal government should compel utilities and critical suppliers to sign “resilience contracts,” committing to maintaining verified continuity plans and secure communications in exchange for funding. Independent stress tests should be required to assess black-start capability and backup interaction systems.
Cultivating an engaged public is equally crucial. Expanding programs like AmeriCorps and the Civil Air Patrol, and establishing a Resilience Defense Corps, can provide citizens with training in emergency response, counter-disinformation, and community coordination. Expanding cyber-focused scholarship programs will build a pipeline of skilled professionals to defend critical networks.
Investing in Resilience: A Cost-Effective Strategy
Building a more resilient nation requires significant investment, but prevention is far more cost-effective than recovery. Studies by the National Institute of Building Sciences demonstrate that every dollar invested in disaster mitigation saves an average of six dollars in avoided losses.Current spending on grid resilience and hazard mitigation is a step in the right direction, but a coherent, unified strategy is essential.
The next war will likely not begin with a traditional declaration. It will begin with disruptions to essential services – flickering screens, silent phones, and unresponsive control rooms. The United States must act now to close existing vulnerabilities and prepare for a future where the battlefield extends far beyond traditional military domains. By embracing a strategy of total defense, Washington can prevent future crises and safeguard the nation’s security.
