Third quarter rebound, GDP rises to + 16.1% – Economy

The acquired change in Italian GDP for 2020 is equal to -8.2%. Istat calculates it based on the maxi-rebound of the economy recorded in the third quarter. The data acquired is that which would be obtained in the presence of a cyclical change equal to zero in the fourth quarter.

The Italian GDP in the third quarter of 2020 recorded a marked rebound of 16.1% compared to the previous quarter, which closed at -13%. The data, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, was disclosed by Istat on the basis of provisional estimates. On an annual basis, compared to the period June-September 2019, the economy instead recorded a contraction of 4.7%. The rebound recorded by the Italian economy in the third quarter of the year, equal to + 16.1% according to the provisional data of Istat, is higher than the estimates of analysts and the government itself. The executive expected growth of just over 13%, such as to recover from the collapse of the second quarter, while the consensus was between 11 and 12%. Bank of Italy had recently indicated a possible growth of 12%, the same figure also estimated by the Parliamentary Budget Office. The third quarter of 2020, Istat specifies, had four more working days than the previous quarter and one more working day compared to the third quarter of 2019. The cyclical variation is the synthesis of an increase in added value both in the sector agriculture, forestry and fishing, both in industry and in services. On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from both the domestic component (gross of inventories) and the net foreign component.

Unemployment drops to 9.6%, among young people to 29.7% – In September the unemployment rate dropped to 9.6% (-0.1 points) and among young people to 29.7% (-1.7 points). This was announced by Istat in the provisional estimates on the labor market. In September, the number of employees was substantially stable compared to the previous month, with an increase of 6,000 units and the recovery of a tenth of a point in the employment rate, which rose to 58.2%. However, the level of employment is still almost 330,000 units lower than that of February 2020 and the number of unemployed, by about 40,000 units, and the number of inactive, by over 220,000 units, remain higher. This was announced by Istat in the provisional data on employment last month. The level of employment in Italy in the third quarter of 2020 is 0.5% higher than that of the previous quarter, recording an increase of 113 thousand units. This was announced by Istat. During the quarter, people seeking employment also increased (+ 18.1% equal to + 379 thousand) and inactive people between 15 and 64 years of age decreased (-3.7% equal to -521 thousand units).

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