Soybean futures in Chicago approached $418 per ton this week, a significant recovery from January lows of $378, before closing Friday at $416.31 per ton, down $1.56. The May soybean contract at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange closed at $317, a 0.6% decrease from the previous session, according to market analysts.
The price fluctuations reflect a complex interplay of factors, including shifting political signals between the United States and China, new export sales, and weather conditions in Brazil, according to Eugenio Irazuegui, an analyst at Zeni. The potential for an extension of the U.S.-China trade truce, following reports in the South China Morning Post suggesting a possible one-year extension if Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping reach an agreement in April, fueled speculative buying.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed a daily sale of 108,000 tons of 2025/2026 soybeans to Egypt, equivalent to two cargo shipments, further supporting prices. However, Jeremías Battistoni, an analyst at AZ Group, noted that Chicago’s gains haven’t fully translated to Argentina due to seasonal factors and the pressure of South American supply. “Chicago soybeans hit lows of $378 per ton in January and are now at $417 per ton – a 10% increase. Meanwhile, Argentine May soybeans have moved from peaks of $321 in January to current levels of $317, a 2% decrease,” he said.
Lorena D’Angelo, also of AZ Group, echoed this assessment, stating that the international market’s performance isn’t replicated domestically because the price increases in Chicago are tied to factors impacting the U.S. Market, not South America. “The pressure is downward because we are in South America and seeing a different picture, which has to do with the entry of the Brazilian harvest and then the subsequent entry of our harvest. While they have already harvested and are running out of merchandise, we are just starting,” she explained.
Brazil’s substantial harvest volume, despite some localized weather issues in Mato Grosso, is acting as a ceiling on regional prices. The USDA recently increased its estimate of the Brazilian soybean harvest to 180 million tons, up from 178 million tons.
Domestically, the available price for soybeans was around $465,000 pesos, stable in local currency but down in dollar terms due to the weakening exchange rate. Weather conditions in Argentina are also contributing to market uncertainty. “The crop in Argentina will be defined in the coming days by what happens with the rains. There is a lot of expectation that they can improve the crops. While soybean fields are showing deterioration due to previous lack of precipitation, Notice forecasts for next week that could improve them generally,” D’Angelo added.
This climate uncertainty, combined with prices that aren’t fully convincing, is causing a standstill in the commercialization of the new harvest (2025/26). According to Battistoni, only 5.6% of the estimated 48.9 million-ton production has a defined price – 2.73 million tons. Of that volume, 0.83 million tons are for exports with a set price, and 1.9 million tons are purchases by the industry with a confirmed price. The remainder remains largely “to be fixed,” reflecting producer caution.
In contrast, the old 2024/25 campaign shows a significantly more advanced level of price fixing. Of a 50.9 million-ton production, approximately 40.7 million tons have a price, equivalent to 80% of the total. This includes 11.3 million tons for export and 29.4 million tons acquired by the industry with a confirmed price, indicating a practically consolidated trading process.
According to Granar, Chicago soybeans closed the week with a positive balance despite Friday’s decline, gaining 1.59% compared to the previous Friday. The firm noted that losses were primarily due to profit-taking by investors, affecting both the grain and oil markets. Granar also cited the advancing record harvest in Brazil, the year-on-year lag in U.S. Exports – which appear dependent on Chinese demand in light of expectations generated by President Trump – and rainfall in agricultural areas of Argentina, which could improve crop conditions as contributing factors. Trump has suggested China could increase its purchases from 12 to 20 million tons.
