Iran’s Drone Deal With Russia Sparks Discontent
Tehran reportedly regrets partnership as Moscow localizes production and faces its own military challenges.
Iran is reportedly experiencing “seller’s remorse” over its lucrative deal to supply Russia with drone technology, a sentiment fueled by Moscow’s rapid localization of production and its own unmet military needs.
Record Drone Attacks Escalate Ukrainian Defenses
Russia’s relentless use of Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drones against Ukraine continues to surge. July saw a staggering 6,129 attacks, surpassing June’s 5,337, with Moscow aiming for a single salvo of 2,000 drones. These weapons, initially based on Iranian designs, have undergone significant Russian modifications, including new engines, warheads, and radar-evading black coatings.
The large-scale production is centered at Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone. This capability stems from a $1.75 billion deal struck in early 2023, which allowed Russia to manufacture these drones locally. Ukraine has documented evolving Shahed variants since early 2023, including those with multipurpose warheads and stealthier coatings.
Growing Iranian Frustration Amidst Unmet Expectations
A CNN report indicates Iran’s displeasure as Russia has achieved nearly 90 percent localized production of the drones with minimal Iranian input. This development, coupled with Russia’s perceived lack of reciprocal support during Iran’s recent conflict with Israel, has intensified Tehran’s frustration.
While Iran officially denies supplying drones post-February 2022 invasion, evidence points to significant technology transfers and deliveries occurring throughout the war. The initial contract aimed for 6,000 Alabuga-produced Shaheds by September 2025, a target Russia has reportedly met and exceeded, driving down per-unit costs for Moscow.
Questionable Returns for Iranian Assistance
The precise benefits Iran has received in return for its crucial assistance remain unclear. Speculation regarding Su-35 fighter jets as part of a barter arrangement has largely failed to materialize, with Russia reportedly diverting some to Algeria and still not delivering the 50 ordered by Iran in 2021. Deliveries to Iran have so far been limited to a small number of Yak-130 jet trainers.
A May 2025 report from the Center for Advanced Defense Studies revealed that Russia may have paid Iran in gold bars, citing a contract between Alabuga and Sahara Thunder worth at least $104 million. However, conflicting reports suggest Sahara Thunder has raised concerns about payment delays, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Russia’s drone production in Iran is a growing concern. The modifications are making them more dangerous. We need to be prepared for escalation.#UkraineWar #IranRussia #Drones
— World Today News (@WorldTodayNews) August 1, 2025
The lack of promised advanced weaponry, such as the Su-35s, stands in stark contrast to Israel’s sustained aerial attacks on Iranian targets in June. This imbalance highlights the transactional nature of the partnership, as described by a Western intelligence official who called it “purely transactional and utilitarian.”
Shifting Alliances and Future Implications
Analysts speculate that Russia might eventually re-export its enhanced Shaheds to Iran, though no such plans are confirmed. Meanwhile, Moscow appears to be transferring Shahed production capabilities to North Korea in exchange for its support in Ukraine. Russia has also supplied Pyongyang with a Pantsir-S1 air defense system and may provide MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets.
Recent reports of a Russian Ilyushin Il-76 flight possibly carrying S-400 components, while unconfirmed, further underscore the complex military-technical cooperation. Despite Russia’s gradual deliveries of air defense equipment to Iran over the past year, these have not prevented Israeli strikes on Iranian air defense systems.
The current situation strongly suggests that Iran may feel it has received an unfavorable deal in its military technology exchange with Russia. This dynamic, coupled with Iran’s own defense vulnerabilities, points to a potentially unstable and opportunistic alliance.
