Scientists predict 1 in 20 people with coronavirus in Wuhan

THE trend supported in the cases reported in Wuhan “widely support” the mathematical models that the London School of Hygiene & Tropical is using to predict the transmission of the dynamic epidemic, according to scientists at this institution, cited today by the financial information agency Bloomberg.

“Assuming trends current are maintained, we are design a peak in the middle / end of February” in Wuhan, said associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology Adam Kucharski at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical, cited by Bloomberg.

Kucharski, who works with mathematical analysis in outbreaks of infectious diseases, explained that “there is a lot of uncertainty, so be cautious about choosing a single peak value, but it is possible based on data current, see a prevalence peak above 5% “.

Wuhan, the Chinese city where the 2019-nCoV emerged at the end of last year, has been quarantined since 23 January, and the movement of 11 million people is restricted.

Health officials in China and around the world are anxious to find out whether the largest known quarantine in the world has the efficacy to contain pneumonia caused by the new virus in Wuhan and in other cities in the province of Hubei, a region where 60 million people live.

Mapping the outbreak of coronavirus all around the world, Kucharski, as well as his colleagues at the institution britThesingle, based their models on a set of hypotheses about the 2019-nCoV.

These include an incubation period of 5.2 days, delay in the onset of symptoms to confirm infection 6.1 days and the risk of infection among the 10 million people who have been identified as the most vulnerable in Wuhan.

Based on that data, a prevalence of 5% is equivalent to about 500,000 infections in total. That is, many times more than the 14,982 cases, that the provincial health authorities had reported in Wuhan until 8pm Saturday night in China.

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“The next two weeks are really critical to understanding what’s going on,” said Benjamin Cowling, head of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Hong Kong, in an interview in Melbourne on Thursday, quoted by Bloomberg.

They are also going to be critical, he warned, to know “whether the virus is spreading to other places or whether we avoided what could be a pandemic overall because of control measures adopted and implemented so far “.

The number of deaths resulting from the pneumonia outbreak caused by the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) amounts to 813, of which 811 in mainland China, where the number of infected exceeds 37 thousand.

In the 24 hours preceding the assessment made today, the Chinese authorities recorded 89 deaths in the mainland and 2,656 new cases of infection how coronavirus detected in December, in Wuhan, capital of the province of Hubei (center), placed under quarantine.

The new balance already exceeds that of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS, in the acronym in English), which between 2002 and 2003 caused the death of 774 people worldwide, most of them in China, but the mortality rate remains lower.

So far, the only two deaths caused by the new coronavirus registered outside mainland China took place in the Philippines and in Hong Kong.

In addition to the mainland of China and the Chinese regions of Macau and Hong Kong, there are more than 350 confirmed cases of contagion in 25 countries. In Europe, the number reached 39 on Sunday, with two new infections detected in Spain in the United Kingdom.

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The World Health Organization (WHO), which declared on 30 January a public health emergency situation of âscope international, indicated on Saturday that the contagion cases revealed daily in China are stabilizing, but stressed that it was too early to conclude that the epidemic has reached its peak.

However, the Chinese Central Bank announced today that it will inject 300 billion in yuan ($ 43 billion) next week to help companies involved in fighting the viral epidemic.

The epidemic is paralyzing major areas of the country’s economy and the threatlas to slow down in economic terms.

The Bank of China will release on Monday the first tranche special funds to help financial institutions lend to key companies involved in the prevention and control of the epidemic.

The vice governor of the Bank of China, Liu Guoqiang, said on the Chinese supervisor’s website, that nine major national banks, in addition to local banks in ten provinces and cities, are eligible to borrow these funds.

It is talking about ten regions include the province of Hubei, the epicenter of the new epidemic coronavirus, Besides Zhejiang, Guangdong, the capital of Beijing and the financial center of Shanghai.

“This financial boost is aimed at helping national and local companies”, said Liu quoted by the agency France Presse.

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