Analyst Warns of Looming NATO Threat if Russia Prevails in Ukraine

A leading US defense analyst has issued a stark warning about the potential global ramifications of a Russian victory in Ukraine. The expert suggests that a “bad peace” imposed on Ukraine could ignite a new era of conflict across Europe, jeopardizing the security of the entire continent.

The Dire Forecast

Michael Cecire, a defense and security researcher at the RAND Corporation, recently alerted a bipartisan group of US lawmakers to the possibility of a Russian attack on NATO within the next five to ten years. This assessment is shared by various European allies. Cecire emphasized the critical need to consider the consequences of a peace settlement that favors Russia.

During a hearing organized by the Helsinki Commission, Cecire stated, “I see a Europe that is under strain and under attack. Ukraine is the front line, but the entire region is under threat and buckling.” He further added that while the consequences of Russian actions, along with Chinese efforts to diminish US influence in Europe, are concerning, they are not insurmountable.

“First, Russia’s ongoing campaign of sabotage, cyber attacks, and hybrid/non-linear operations against European states. Second, Russia’s ability to sustain and regenerate its forces despite significant losses in Ukraine, which by some estimates already top one million casualties. And third, Russia’s maximalist demands for not only de facto dominion over Ukraine and broader swaths of Europe, including rolling back protections for several existing NATO member states,”

—Michael Cecire, Defense and Security Researcher

Cecire also highlighted the threats Russia has made towards a direct war with NATO. According to a 2023 report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia has increased its military spending by approximately 60% in the last year, demonstrating its capacity to wage war (International Institute for Strategic Studies).

Potential Fallout

Cecire has observed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which was likely planned as a quick “decapitation” operation, failed and devolved into a protracted war. This could lead to hybrid actions intended to test and potentially harm alliance unity.

During his testimony, Cecire underlined the potential threats to European security and US national interests stemming from a Russian-dictated peace in Ukraine, focusing on the risks to Moldova. He predicts that a Russian military success, or a ceasefire favorable to Moscow, would “almost certainly see Russian ambitions metastasize into Moldova and beyond.”

He further explained that Russia could directly threaten Moldova and intensify its influence in vulnerable regions, such as Transnistria and Gagauzia, employing its political and economic leverage. This could harm European security and US interests, potentially increasing threats against Romania and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

Cecire concluded that if Moldova’s sovereignty is compromised, Chinese interests are likely to follow Russia’s. He noted that China has been making substantial geo-economic efforts in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region, investing in infrastructure and telecommunications while forming strategic partnerships.