Russia is bolstering its military presence along its borders with NATO countries, though a senior European intelligence official stated Moscow is not currently capable of launching an attack against the alliance. The build-up is contingent on the outcome of the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service.
Speaking in an online briefing to journalists on February 10, 2026, Rosin indicated Russia plans to create new military units and potentially double or triple its pre-war force levels along the NATO border. This expansion, however, is tied to the need to maintain a “significant portion” of its military within Ukraine and Russia itself to counter potential future Ukrainian actions, he said.
“Currently there are ‘not enough resources available’ for Moscow to launch an attack on NATO,” Rosin stated, as reported by the Associated Press and Military.com. However, the Kremlin is increasingly concerned about the potential for European rearmament and the development of military capabilities that could pose a threat to Russia in the coming years.
The intelligence chief also assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the nearly four-year-long invasion of Ukraine and believes he can “outsmart” the United States during negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict. Rosin characterized current discussions with Washington as a stalling tactic, with no genuine effort from Russian officials to establish meaningful cooperation.
These assessments come as Russia continues its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, including energy facilities, leaving civilians without power and heating during a harsh winter, as documented by the Associated Press. NATO has consistently condemned Russia’s war against Ukraine as a violation of international law and a threat to Euro-Atlantic security, according to a statement on the alliance’s website.
Estonia’s security assessment, to be published Tuesday, informed Rosin’s remarks. The report is expected to detail the Kremlin’s view of ongoing talks with the U.S. And the broader strategic implications of the war in Ukraine.
