Is Donald Trump‘s Sweeping Gaza Peace Plan Really Viable?
Donald Trump recently unveiled a comprehensive peace plan for Gaza, a move occurring amidst shifting American public opinion regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and escalating tensions with Iran. The plan’s viability, though, is immediately questioned given the current geopolitical landscape and the strong opposition from key international players.
A recent survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena University reveals a meaningful shift in American sentiment. For the first time, more americans now sympathize with Palestinians than with Israel. This shift is coupled with growing opposition to further U.S.aid to Israel, traditionally a cornerstone of American foreign policy in the Middle East.
Adding complexity to the situation is the ongoing friction between Israel and Iran. The two nations engaged in a twelve-day conflict in June, marked by Israeli assassinations of senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear specialists, and retaliatory U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Despite this, Trump expressed optimism about potential cooperation with Iran, stating, “We hope we’re going to be able to get along with Iran…I think they’re going to be open to it. I really believe that.”
This optimism appears at odds with Iran’s public stance. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, addressing the U.N. General Assembly, strongly condemned the “savage aggression” by Israel and the U.S. during the June conflict, deeming it a violation of international law. he also criticized Britain, France, and Germany for reinstating snapback sanctions due to Iran’s non-compliance with its nuclear program, sanctions that will further damage Iran’s oil and banking sectors and require a freeze on Iranian foreign assets, an end to arms deals, and the disruption of major revenue streams.
Pezeshkian further alleged that Israel and the U.S. are attempting “to topple” the Iranian theocracy, believing that assassinations and bombings would incite popular uprising. He reiterated that a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei prohibits Iran from developing nuclear weapons, stating, “We are not allowed under our religion to build nuclear weapons facilities,” and asserting that if Iran desired such weapons, “we would have gotten them by now.”
However, recent developments cast doubt on this claim. In July, Tehran enacted a law suspending cooperation with the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog. Moreover, a letter signed by seventy-one members of the Iranian parliament - roughly a quarter of the body – argued that Khamenei’s edict only forbids the use of nuclear weapons, not their growth or stockpiling as a deterrent.
The reimposition of snapback sanctions on Iran, which went into effect on Sunday, effectively ends the negotiations that lead to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) a decade prior. The snapback provision, designed to allow any of the six world powers involved in the JCPOA to reimpose sanctions in case of Iranian violations, was triggered by European nations due to its impending expiration date of october 18th.
The timing of Trump’s Gaza plan may also be influenced by his personal ambitions.The President has repeatedly expressed a desire for a Nobel Peace prize, and the White House recently publicized a list of leaders and governments supportive of his administration.The prize is scheduled to be awarded on October 10th.
Given the deeply entrenched positions of all parties involved, the recent escalation of tensions, and the shifting geopolitical landscape, the viability of Trump’s sweeping Gaza peace plan remains highly uncertain.
