Lebanon Confronts Hezbollah’s Arsenal
Government Push to Centralize Weapons Faces Crucial Test Amid Regional Tensions
Lebanon’s government is reportedly preparing to tackle a long-standing political hurdle: consolidating all weaponry under state control. This move aims to dismantle Hezbollah’s independent military power, a critical issue intensified by escalating border clashes.
Southern Front Fuels Arms Debate
Recent Israeli airstrikes on facilities linked to Hezbollah, which resulted in civilian casualties, have heightened the urgency for addressing illicit arms. International pressure, particularly from the United States, is conditioning reconstruction aid and financial assistance on tangible progress in disarming non-state actors.
Despite Hezbollah’s public stance on its arms as a safeguard for Lebanon, behind-the-scenes discussions suggest a search for a diplomatic exit. Reports indicate a meeting between President **Joseph Aoun** and the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, **Mohamed Raad**, was described as a candid exchange, signaling a political probing of the situation.
Expert Cautions Against Immediate Resolution
Political analyst **Elie Youssef** expressed skepticism about an immediate, decisive outcome from the upcoming session. However, he emphasized its significance, especially given international scrutiny.
“The United States is no longer satisfied with symbolic stances. The demand to subject Hezbollah to the state authority has become a basic requirement. As for Israel, it does not build its policies to wait for the Lebanese concessions, but rather invests the arms survival as an excuse for pressure and strikes.”
—Elie Youssef, Political Analyst
Youssef noted that Hezbollah recognizes the shift in regional and international dynamics, understanding that maintaining its arsenal is no longer without consequence. The party is reportedly negotiating its influence within a restructured Lebanese system as part of its security guarantees.
Political Landscape Shifts
Hezbollah’s diminished influence over government decisions, often termed the “spoiler third,” theoretically allows for policy implementation without its full backing. Yet, Lebanon’s intricate political landscape and sectarian balances could delay practical application of any new decree.
“The decision may be taken on Tuesday, but it will be referred to the Supreme Council of Defense, which will be charged with setting up a timetable for implementation. This means that matters are subject to regional developments, especially in the Iranian file.”
—Elie Youssef, Political Analyst
The international community is pushing for reforms, with some Western nations threatening to withhold reconstruction funds and aid if no concrete steps are taken regarding weapons. Observers in Beirut suggest Hezbollah is maneuvering to find a compromise that preserves its political standing without direct confrontation.
Presidential Address Offers Path Forward
During the Lebanese Army Day celebration, President **Aoun** delivered a speech perceived as a final opportunity for Hezbollah to realign with state authority. He recalled his mandate and the agreements, including the ministerial statement, that affirm state monopoly over arms.
Youssef highlighted the challenge: “The challenge is now not only whether Hezbollah will deliver weapons, but how will this be translated in practice? What are the guarantees that it requests?” He added that the party understands the geopolitical shift, realizing it can no longer operate as a “state within the state” without significant repercussions.
Negotiations for a “Safe Exit”
The meeting between **Mohamed Raad** and President **Aoun**, described as a “frank session,” signals the commencement of what sources call “bargaining for a safe exit.”
“The party is required today to announce when, where, and how its weapon can be delivered? These questions are still without clear answers, but they are now raised more strong than ever.”
—Elie Youssef, Political Analyst
Youssef anticipates an initial governmental approval, followed by referral to the Supreme Defense Council for a long-term implementation plan, allowing for negotiation and potential delays. He concluded: “Time is no longer open to Hezbollah… and the Lebanese before the international community want to decide this file.”
Lebanon appears to be entering a pivotal moment in its political history. Hezbollah, long committed to its armed status under the banner of “resistance,” faces unprecedented pressure as its domestic support erodes and international isolation grows. The coming days may not bring dramatic shifts but are poised to redefine power dynamics between the state and its influential non-state actor, as well as between national sovereignty and armed entities operating outside legal frameworks.
