BEIRUT — The audacious operation to apprehend Nicolás Maduro – described by president Trump as a Hollywood-esque mission involving Delta Force – sent shockwaves through the international community, drawing condemnation from nations across the globe, including Colombia, China, and France.
However, no nation appears as deeply alarmed as Iran. Already grappling with a resurgence of anti-government protests and the fallout from last summer’s military clashes with the U.S. and Israel, Iranian leaders now find themselves facing an management seemingly unconstrained by conventional international protocols. The perceived willingness of the Trump administration to take decisive, and possibly destabilizing, action has placed Iran in a precarious position.
Recent statements from President Trump and his allies have done little to assuage Tehran’s anxieties. Just a day before the Maduro operation, Trump issued a stark warning to Iran, stating the U.S. was “locked and loaded and ready to go” should the Iranian government resort to violence against peaceful protesters.He reiterated this threat on Monday, warning that Iran would face severe consequences if its security forces harmed demonstrators.
Other U.S. officials have explicitly linked the situation in Venezuela to Iran, signaling a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a staunch supporter of president Trump, wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that “the ayatollah and his henchmen are at the top of the list of the bad guys,” and that Trump had put them “on notice” regarding their “brutal oppression” of the iranian people.
The current unrest in Iran was ignited by a dramatic collapse of the Iranian currency in late December. Protests have since spread to all but four of Iran’s 31 provinces, even reaching areas traditionally considered strongholds of government support. According to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, at least 41 people have been killed, including 30 protesters, four children, and two security personnel. In response, the Iranian government has implemented a nationwide internet shutdown.
Unlike previous periods of unrest, where the Iranian government could largely disregard international criticism while suppressing protests with force, the current situation is different.Demonstrators now perceive a more emboldened U.S. president, one who appears willing to back up his rhetoric with action. “Before, if a U.S.president said, ‘We’re going to come in and protect protesters,’ everyone in the Iranian government would have called his bluff and said it won’t happen,” explained Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “But there was the 12-day war in June [between Israel and Iran, with U.S. involvement]. You just had Venezuela. And you have a cowboy president. This is uncharted territory for the regime. They have to take this seriously.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin netanyahu looks on as President Trump speaks to journalists during a joint news conference at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida last month.
(jim Watson / AFP / Getty Images)
The Iranian government is already signaling its concern. On Wednesday, Iran’s army chief, Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami, warned of a possible preemptive military strike, stating that any perceived threat against Iran would be met with a response.The country’s Defense Council echoed this sentiment,declaring that Iran could act preemptively against perceived enemies and that its security,independence,and territorial integrity were “an inviolable red line.”
Despite these strong warnings, the Iranian government has adopted a relatively restrained approach to the ongoing protests, with Ayatollah ali Khamenei acknowledging the validity of some of the protesters’ concerns while blaming “mercenary individuals provoked by the enemy” for inciting violence. This cautious approach may be driven by a fear of provoking a direct response from the Trump administration.
According to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, “The regime has long resorted to the iron fist in quelling past rounds of nationwide unrest. But reprising that playbook more than it already has to quell discontent now runs the possibility of some form of intervention from abroad — and Tehran’s decision-makers are likely at a loss to know what covert or overt options may be on the table, and how targeted or sweeping they could be.” He added that Trump, emboldened by recent successes, “has the allure of further interventions with low costs and high reward.”
iran’s current predicament is compounded by the erosion of its regional alliances. Over the past two years, the so-called “Axis of Resistance” – a network of allied governments and armed factions – has been significantly weakened. Moreover, economic sanctions, coupled with corruption and mismanagement, have left Iran facing severe economic challenges, including shortages of water and electricity. The loss of Venezuela as a key economic partner further isolates Iran on the international stage.
A young iranian woman walks under an anti-U.S. and Israeli billboard in Tehran depicting symbolic images of coffins of U.S. and Israeli soldiers, alongside a statement from the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Ali Larijani, that reads, ‘’Watch out your soldiers.”
(Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto / Getty Images)
While a direct military strike against Iran remains a possibility, experts believe that a decapitation strike targeting Ayatollah Khamenei is unlikely to result in regime change. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains a powerful and well-organized force capable of suppressing internal opposition. Moreover,the IRGC has taken steps to ensure continuity of leadership in the event of a crisis.
Despite the escalating tensions, Iranian leaders have repeatedly stated their unwillingness to negotiate with the United States. Ayatollah Khamenei recently asserted that past negotiations with the U.S. were merely a smokescreen for covert planning against Iran, and vowed that Iran would not yield to external pressure.
however, a preemptive strike by Iran, while potentially providing a temporary boost to domestic support, could provoke a forceful military response from the United States and its allies – a scenario that Iran is likely keen to avoid. As Geranmayeh concludes, “It’s a game in which Iran will not be a winner. But desperate situations force desperate choices, and all of them are high cost.”
