Indonesia‘s Leadership and the Potential of PNG‘s ASEAN Accession
Indonesia is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of regional dynamics, particularly with the potential accession of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). jakarta’s recent assertive stance on West Papua, demonstrated by its diplomatic responses to attempts to elevate the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) – including a walk-out at the Melanesian Summit and rejection of its membership – underscores a firm commitment to national sovereignty. This signals a clear red line and reinforces the understanding that the Papua issue is an internal matter, not a subject for regional negotiation.This willingness to defend its position internationally is a posture Indonesia is highly likely to maintain within ASEAN deliberations should PNG join the bloc.
Though, Indonesia recognizes the broader strategic implications of Pacific Island nations and the need to prevent the region from becoming solely influenced by major external powers like the United States and China. ASEAN, with Indonesia at its core, is uniquely positioned to lead engagement with the Pacific, ensuring regional agency.
Under the leadership of Prabowo subianto, Indonesia continues a decentralizing approach, prioritizing increased attention to eastern regions like Papua. Prabowo consistently emphasizes the importance of both sovereignty and diplomacy,famously stating,”A thousand friends are too few; one enemy is too many.” By framing PNG as a neighbor and partner, Indonesia aims to transform the West Papua issue from a potential source of conflict into a framework for collaborative regional solutions.
The experience of timor-Leste’s accession process highlights the administrative and integration challenges faced by smaller states. While PNG also faces governance hurdles, its potential contribution to ASEAN is important. With ASEAN support, and particularly Indonesia’s guidance in institution-building, PNG could meaningfully contribute to the bloc’s agenda. Its size, resource wealth, and strategic geographic location mean successful integration woudl benefit PNG and reinforce ASEAN’s regional centrality under Indonesia’s leadership.
Despite these potential benefits, PNG’s candidacy raises legitimate concerns about institutional capacity. The country grapples with persistent governance challenges, including weak state institutions, corruption, and political instability, hindering effective policymaking. According to the World Bank, PNG’s per capita income remains low for the Asia-Pacific region, and its human development indicators lag behind ASEAN averages. Successfully navigating ASEAN entry will require substantial technical assistance. This presents a valuable chance for Jakarta to lead capacity-building initiatives, positioning Indonesia not merely as a sponsor of PNG’s accession, but as a mentor in regional integration.
Anchoring PNG within ASEAN is crucial to preventing the Pacific dimension of regional politics from falling under the exclusive influence of external powers, such as the United States and China, who are actively vying for influence in the region. By facilitating this integration, Jakarta solidifies its role as a guardian of regional sovereignty and the principal architect of Asia-Pacific connectivity.
While some express concerns about ASEAN overextension,the bloc has successfully navigated diversity in the past. Previous expansions, once considered risky, ultimately strengthened ASEAN. if managed carefully, PNG’s membership could reinforce ASEAN’s cohesion under Indonesian leadership. Jakarta’s demonstrated ability to balance competing interests uniquely positions it to guide this process. Rather than diluting ASEAN, PNG’s accession could showcase Indonesia’s role as the stabilizing force that ensures the bloc remains relevant in a rapidly evolving Indo-Pacific landscape.
