Southern Europe Summer Travel Cools Amid Heat Concerns

Vacationers Opt for Shoulder Seasons as Temperatures Soar

The peak summer travel season in Southern Europe is experiencing a noticeable dip in demand for short-term rentals, with extreme heatwaves emerging as a probable catalyst for this shift.

Shifting Seasonal Preferences

Destinations across Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Malta, and Cyprus are witnessing a reduced concentration of annual travel bookings within the traditional summer months. This trend, observed in both coastal towns and city centers, suggests a growing tendency for travelers to adjust their plans to avoid oppressive heat.

“We definitely see a movement of the share of demand from some of the peak months into the shoulder season months,” noted Bram Gallagher, an economist at AirDNA. “It seems like heatwaves are going to be a recurring fixture in European travel.”

While the overall volume of short-term rentals continues to grow in these nations, the expansion is now more pronounced in the spring and autumn periods. For instance, Spain has seen a significant decrease in August bookings since 2018, with parallel growth in demand from February to May.

Italy is also experiencing a decline in August demand, coupled with modest increases in May, June, and February, pointing to spring as an emerging alternative to the sweltering summer months. Similar patterns are evident in Greece, Cyprus, and France, with February and May bookings on the rise.

2023 Marked Steepest Decline Amid Record Heat

The data, which tracks the proportion of annual bookings per month, reveals that 2023 recorded the sharpest fall in demand share for June through August. This period coincided with unprecedented global and European temperatures.

“2023 was probably the most severe heat we’ve seen,” Gallagher stated. “There are many factors, overcrowding, costs, but I think weather is certainly among the top reasons things are shifting.”

The summer of 2023 brought widespread wildfires, necessitating evacuations, and prolonged periods of extreme temperatures, frequently exceeding 40°C, across much of Southern Europe. These events led to travel disruptions, including flight delays and cancellations.

According to the European Travel Commission, these disruptions contributed to a 10% drop in travel to affected destinations in 2023 compared to the previous year. Furthermore, a separate report from the commission found that 81% of Europeans report that climate change influences their travel decisions, an increase of seven percentage points from the prior year.

The trend is reversed in Northern Europe, where countries like Sweden, Norway, and Finland are reporting increased short-term rental bookings during the peak summer months, a stark contrast to the situation further south.

Globally, extreme weather events linked to climate change are impacting travel. For example, the early summer heatwave in the Mediterranean in June 2023 led to significant wildfires and evacuations, impacting tourist activities in regions like Rhodes, Greece, as reported by news outlets at the time.