Russia is engaged in a “long-term” and “existential” conflict with the West, potentially stretching for decades, according to a leading defence analyst. Professor Michael Clarke, Visiting Professor at King’s College London and the University of Exeter, described the situation as “European War 3,” but cautioned against equating it with traditional understandings of global conflict.
Speaking to Sky News, Clarke argued that although a full-scale “World War 3” involving universal destruction is unlikely, Russia under Vladimir Putin is committed to sustained belligerence. “They’ve given up on peaceful coexistence in the West,” he said, adding that Moscow seeks to reassert influence over former satellite states, including Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltic nations – a security perimeter it felt protected during the Cold War.
Clarke explained that the current conflict differs from the two previous World Wars, which he characterized as “universal wars for different reasons.” He asserted that while numerous conflicts are occurring globally, there is no unifying force to escalate them into a broader conflagration. He dismissed novels speculating about an imminent World War 3 as fundamentally flawed in their premise.
“Where we are in dangerous territory, and increasingly dangerous territory, is that Russia under Putin is committed to long-term belligerence,” Clarke stated. He elaborated that Russia is pursuing its objectives “by every means, up to actual violence.”
Clarke’s assessment comes as the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was marked on Tuesday. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Wednesday that Moscow shows no interest in genuine peace negotiations and is preparing for a protracted war. According to the ISW, the Kremlin is integrating the ongoing conflict into its political agenda and electoral strategies, endorsing candidates who strongly support continued military action. The ISW assessment suggests Moscow is planning for the war to continue at least until September, and “likely much longer.”
Professor Clarke previously served as Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) from 2007 to 2015 and remains a Distinguished Fellow at the institution. He was also the founding director of the Centre for Defence Studies and the International Policy Institute, both at King’s College London, and held the position of Deputy Vice-Principal at King’s. He has been a specialist advisor to several parliamentary committees since 1997.
In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Clarke commented on former President Trump’s remarks regarding NATO, stating they would be “music to many ears in Moscow and Beijing.” He characterized the remarks as indicative of a return to an “imperialist world” where major powers believe they have a “natural right to grab whatever they desire.”
As of Wednesday, February 26, 2026, neither the Kremlin nor NATO have publicly responded to Clarke’s assessment of a long-term European conflict.
