Summit Priorities: beyond Russia and China

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and Antonio Costa, president of the european council, will lead the EU delegation to Samarkand. Their mission: to forge deeper partnerships with the resource-rich Central Asian nations, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

• EU Objectives: Securing energy resources and critical raw materials to bolster its green transition and strategic autonomy.
• Central Asian Objectives: Attracting investments in industries and infrastructure to diversify their economies.

The agenda encompasses a broad spectrum of issues, including multilateralism, regional security, clean energy cooperation, tourism, and support for Ukraine.

President Costa has been very clear from the beginning of his mandate that he believes that in this multipolar world, the EU really needs to reconnect with its global partners.Central Asia is very much one of the elements of this approach.
Senior EU Official

This statement, provided by a senior EU official speaking anonymously, underscores the EU’s strategic pivot towards engaging with global partners beyond traditional alliances.

The Driving Force: Diversification Imperative

A shared desire to reduce reliance on Russia and China is a primary catalyst for this high-level engagement. Historically, these nations have been significant trade partners for Central Asia, but recent geopolitical events have prompted a reevaluation of these relationships.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coupled with what some perceive as transactional approaches to trade and foreign policy by both Beijing and Washington, have diminished previous hesitations about closer cooperation between the EU and Central Asia.

Energy, Raw Materials, and Industrial Growth

The EU’s strategic interest lies in accessing Central Asia’s abundant resources to fuel its green transition. The bloc seeks to reduce its dependence on China for critical raw materials essential for renewable energy technologies.

Dr. Stefan Meister,from the German Council on Foreign Relations,offers perspective:

It’s not about seriously challenging China and Russia,but it’s rather (about) offering some alternatives in some sectors,competing in some sectors,especially on raw materials and on connectivity.
Dr. Stefan Meister,German Council on Foreign Relations

The EU has already established Memorandums of Understanding with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,signaling its commitment to securing access to these vital resources. The goal is to foster local industry development alongside resource extraction.

The European union is not only promoting the extraction and the exports of raw materials, but in our mind, we want to promote industry locally in the region, thus also helping the development of clean technology. We want to invest together with the Central Asian countries in the full value chain.
senior EU Official

Central Asian nations are equally keen to develop their manufacturing capabilities and diversify their export markets.

They have been developing industries with the view of trying to get into European markets with chemicals, with textiles, with maybe building materials, sort of non-energy.
Dr. Anna Matveeva, King’s College London

However, logistical challenges hinder their access to European markets.

Tajikistan produces a lot of aluminium, it’s one of the major aluminium producers in the world. But it is almost unachievable to export aluminium to the European Union because of the logistics (…) so they have to sell it to china and Russia, which is much easier for them.
Dr. Anna Matveeva, King’s College London

Boosting Transport Links: The Trans-Caspian Corridor

The Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, also known as the Middle Corridor, is crucial for facilitating trade between Central asia and Europe. The EU has pledged €10 billion to this initiative through its Global Gateway program.

Though,some experts believe this investment is insufficient given the scale and complexity of the project.

The Global Gateway Initiative is very slow in producing effects in real life, and that’s a source of frustration for a number of partner countries, including central Asian countries.
Marie Dumoulin, european Council on Foreign relations

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimates that €18.5 billion is needed to complete the necessary infrastructure projects in Central Asia alone.

A potential outcome of the summit is the announcement of a new Investors Forum dedicated to the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor.

Additional financing is key in order to make sure we deliver on this point.
Senior EU Official

Beyond physical infrastructure, “soft connectivity” challenges, such as regulatory harmonization and border inefficiencies, also need addressing.

Soft connectivity challenges—such as limited regulatory harmonisation, border inefficiencies, and the need for greater digitalisation of transport documents—continue to hinder transit efficiency.
Aruzhan Meirkhanova, Kazakhstan’s National Analytical Center

Political will, trust, and stronger stakeholder coordination will be key to tackling soft connectivity challenges.
Aruzhan Meirkhanova,Kazakhstan’s National Analytical Centre

Navigating Human Rights and Sanctions

both the EU and Central Asian nations face a delicate balancing act. Central Asian countries aim to strengthen ties with the West without alienating Russia or China.

Central Asian countries try to pursue a so-called multi-vector foreign policy, meaning that they are prepared to cooperate with different players without alienating any of them. They woudl like to benefit from all sides.
Dr.anna Matveeva, King’s College London

That said, they do not want to go too far, especially with the West, with the EU, because they do want to become too pro-West, for different reasons.
Dr. Anna Matveeva, King’s College London

The EU, on the other hand, must balance its economic interests with its commitment to human rights and its efforts to pressure Russia.

EU officials have stated that the issue of Russian sanctions circumvention will be raised at the summit.

Notably,German exports of cars and auto parts to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have seen dramatic increases,raising concerns about the re-export of sanctioned goods to Russia.

We have seen a willingness to cooperate. We would like, of course, to see more, and this is a time when the European Union sanctions are extremely important as we want to maintain the pressure on Russia.So we see this as an ongoing process.
Senior EU Official

Maintaining credibility on human rights is another challenge for the EU. Human Rights Watch has urged the EU to address human rights abuses in Central Asia.

These are relationships that are now developing and obviously, you know, as they develop and as they grow, they can have more impact. We’re not going there to preach. we are going to make our concerns known, to work with them, to have a dialog. The more we have a dialogue and engagement and interaction, the more we believe that we can change and improve all the things that concern us.
Senior EU Official

Though, some observers are skeptical about the EU’s leverage in this area.

The EU doesn’t have much leverage on these countries and it’s also not building up real leverage.
Dr. Stefan Meister, German Council on Foreign Relations

Dr. Meister suggests the EU is adopting a more pragmatic, interest-oriented approach under the current Commission.

This is a specific trend under von der Leyen, who is much more pragmatic on human rights issues, in my opinion, and is much more interest-oriented.
Dr. Stefan Meister, German Council on Foreign Relations