Havana – A growing sense of unease is spreading among ambassadors from nations traditionally aligned with the United States as they grapple with Washington’s increasingly assertive strategy toward Cuba, while simultaneously considering scaling back their own diplomatic presence on the island.
Cuba is facing a deepening crisis, marked by a four-year economic downturn, accelerating hyperinflation, and an exodus of nearly 20% of its population. The 67-year-old communist government is demonstrably weakened, a situation the U.S. Administration appears determined to exploit. Following a military operation against Venezuela, a key Cuban ally, in early January, the U.S. Is actively pursuing regime change, according to multiple diplomatic sources.
More than five high-ranking officials from various countries have voiced frustration over what they perceive as a lack of transparency from the U.S. Charge d’affaires in Havana, Mike Hammer. Complaints center on Hammer’s failure to articulate a comprehensive plan beyond intensifying economic pressure on Cuba, specifically through restrictions on oil supplies. “There’s a lot of talk about human rights and Cuba changing this year, but very little discussion about what comes after,” one diplomat stated.
Rumors of high-level discussions in Mexico between representatives of the Cuban government – including Gen. Alejandro Castro Espín, son of former President Raúl Castro – and U.S. Officials offer a glimmer of hope for a negotiated resolution, but progress remains elusive. Some observers point to comments made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Munich as potentially signaling a willingness to avoid outright regime change. Rubio suggested that increasing “freedom, not just political freedom but economic freedom” for the Cuban people could be a “potential way forward,” as reported by Bloomberg.
Though, many diplomats fear the U.S. Is preparing to intensify economic coercion, aiming to trigger widespread unrest and create an opportunity for intervention. “We’re trying to keep a cool head,” said one ambassador. “Embassies are built on planning for the unexpected – hopefully before it becomes expected,” added another.
Concerns are heightened by the impact of fuel shortages on the UN World Food Programme’s (WFP) efforts to provide relief following last year’s Hurricane Melissa. The WFP, which maintains a low profile on the island, is now developing contingency plans for a significantly larger-scale crisis. “We’re already seeing the impact on the availability of fresh produce in cities,” explained Étienne Labande, the WFP’s country director.
Diplomats warn that the rapid deterioration of fuel supplies – essential for electricity, water, and food transportation – could quickly lead to widespread suffering. “It’s a matter of weeks,” one source cautioned. “The concern is that people in rural areas like Viñales might cope, but those in cities would be at terrible risk.” The resulting power outages and transportation disruptions are already impacting daily life.
The current crisis was exacerbated by an executive order signed by former President Donald Trump in January imposing tariffs on any country supplying Cuba with oil. Despite objections from Cuba’s traditional allies, China and Russia, the threat has proven effective. Even Mexico, which had become Cuba’s largest oil supplier after Venezuela, has halted tanker shipments, even though President Claudia Sheinbaum has warned of a humanitarian disaster and sent 800 tons of aid, stating, “No one can ignore the situation that the Cuban people are currently experiencing because of the sanctions that the United States is imposing in a very unfair manner.”
During a reception at the U.S. Residence on January 28th, Charge d’Affaires Mike Hammer referenced the 68-year U.S. Embargo, telling guests, “The Cubans have complained for years about ‘the blockade,’ but now there is going to be a real blockade.” He subsequently embarked on a tour of eastern Cuba, distributing U.S. Aid, where he encountered small groups of government-backed protesters.
The U.S. Embassy in Havana stated they regularly engage with diplomatic colleagues but declined to comment on the specifics of their discussions.
The consequences of the U.S. Oil restrictions have materialized more quickly than anticipated. This week, all three airlines flying tourists into Cuba from Canada suspended their services due to a lack of aviation fuel. Two Russian airlines followed suit, initiating the process of repatriating travelers. Approximately three-quarters of a million Canadians visited Cuba in 2025, making them the largest group of tourists, followed by Russian visitors and Cuban expatriates. The UK Foreign Office has also adjusted its travel advice, recommending only essential travel to the island.
As the oil blockade constricts Cuba’s ability to generate foreign exchange, Cubans are bracing for a prolonged period of hardship. “It is starting to feel like the 1962 missile crisis,” one resident remarked. “The sun was shining then too, and people went about their business, under a cloud of anxiety.”
The Cuban government has already shuttered universities, secondary schools, and non-essential state offices, and reduced public transportation to conserve resources. Adrian Rodriguez Suárez, a 22-year-old nuclear physics student at Havana University, has been instructed to return to his hometown of Holguín to continue his studies remotely. “Many are using their own means to gain home,” he said. “What worries me is the situation in my province. Studying is going to be tricky.”
Amidst the growing uncertainty, some Cubans are adapting to the modern reality. In La Lisa, Havana, a man is manufacturing wood-burning stoves, selling single burners for $8 and double burners for $15. In Sancti Spíritus, a woman lamented, “My mother is going crazy with this cooking on charcoal.”
Diplomats are actively developing plans for potential evacuation if the situation deteriorates further. “What is the point of us being here if we can’t work?” one asked. “We’re prepared, vigilant, and hoping common sense keeps winning a few rounds,” said another.
In Havana’s tourist districts, a palpable quiet is descending. Yarini, a popular rooftop bar, was sparsely populated on a recent weekday night, with its few patrons consisting of war correspondents seeking respite from the conflict in Ukraine, hoping to cover the potential fall of one of the world’s last communist states.
