Summary of the Article: ”Kill the Chicken too Scare the Monkey” – US Sanctions on Russian Oil & China
This article argues that the US strategy of sanctioning smaller entities involved in helping China import Russian oil (like ”teapot refineries” and individual ships) is ineffective and akin to “swatting at mosquitoes.” It proposes a more impactful approach: targeting Chinese financial institutions that facilitate transactions with Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil.
Here’s a breakdown of the key points:
* China is circumventing sanctions: China is actively finding ways to continue importing Russian oil despite US sanctions, using methods like shadow fleets, ship-to-ship transfers, barter systems, and concentrating imports at single ports operated by state-owned enterprises.
* Current US strategy is weak: focusing on smaller players doesn’t deter China, as they can easily adapt and find choice routes.
* “Kill the Chicken to Scare the Monkey” principle: The US should make a high-profile example of a few key Chinese banks to deter others from engaging in similar behavior. This is a common Chinese proverb advocating for impactful, deterrent punishment.
* Trump’s leniency: The article notes Trump’s reluctance to directly confront China on this issue, even after promising to do so.
* Risks of escalation: Sanctioning large Chinese banks could disrupt the international financial system,but the US doesn’t need to go “all-in” immediately. Signaling a willingness to act, even against a medium-sized bank, could be enough to encourage cooperation.
* Potential compromises: The US could allow existing contracts (like pipeline exports) to continue while focusing on curbing financial flows.
* Trump’s recent actions are a start, but need follow-through: the sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are positive, but require robust enforcement to be effective.
In essence, the article advocates for a more assertive and strategically focused sanctions policy that targets the financial arteries enabling China’s continued purchase of Russian oil. It argues that a credible threat to the Chinese financial system is the most likely way to substantially reduce Russia’s oil revenues and pressure Moscow.
