Green Hydrogen Ambitions Face Reality Check: Large-Scale Production in Emerging Economies Unlikely by 2030
Despite a surge in announced green hydrogen projects in emerging economies, widespread operationalization remains distant, according to a new analysis. Barely 0.5% of projects have secured committed investments, lagging considerably behind the global average of over 9%. Consequently, only an estimated 5% of announced projects in these regions are projected to be operational by the widely cited 2030 deadline, with the majority facing delayed materialization.
A key impediment is the slow pace of renewable energy integration. In 2024, the three regions under examination accounted for only 6% of global new solar and wind capacity installations-a level insufficient to fuel significant electrolytic production. Furthermore, a heavy reliance on export markets-nearly 80% of announced projects are export-oriented, almost double the world average-creates vulnerability to fluctuating international demand.
Financial hurdles are substantial. Realizing all announced projects would necessitate 420 GW of electrolysis capacity and exceed $1.5 trillion in investment, matching 2024’s global investment in new electrical production. However, these regions have attracted less than 9% of that investment, facing capital costs reaching 15% compared to 5-7% in advanced economies.
These factors suggest a more pragmatic outlook. Rather than a fully-fledged industry, Africa and its counterparts are likely to prioritize pilot and demonstration projects through 2030.The immediate focus will shift from export volumes to building a robust local sector capable of supporting future large-scale developments.
By Abdoullah Diop,edited by Feriol Bewa
