Modi and putin to Meet as Both Nations Navigate Complex Geopolitical Landscape
As vladimir Putin prepares to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both leaders find themselves navigating increasingly complex political and economic challenges. The summit comes at a time of heightened scrutiny of Russia’s international relationships, spurred by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and a shifting energy landscape for India.
Recent public displays of camaraderie between Modi and Putin – including images of the two leaders holding hands and sharing jokes – have drawn criticism, notably from former US President Donald Trump.However, India’s engagement with Russia is deeply rooted in strategic considerations, primarily concerning its northern and northeastern border with China.
According to foreign policy analyst Arati Pande, geography is the core driver of the India-Russia relationship. “From the Indian side…the real reason that relationship is critically important is geography,” Pande stated. “China remains the greatest threat to India…and as the Soviet Union,India has always relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China.”
The strengthening “no-limits partnership” between Moscow and Beijing has raised concerns in India, prompting a desire to maintain Russia as a counterweight to Chinese influence. India hopes to ensure Russia can exert some pressure on China, and is simultaneously working to reduce its long-standing dependence on Russian arms. While historically sourcing approximately 70% of its defense purchases from Russia, india has decreased this reliance to under 40% in the last four years.
Discussions are expected to include continued arms deals, specifically regarding Russian S-400 air defence systems and the Sukhoi Su-57 fighter aircraft. India aims to strike a balance, continuing purchases to maintain the alliance while avoiding over-dependence that could leave it vulnerable to supply disruptions under potential Chinese pressure. analysts characterize the relationship as “pure realpolitik.”
Economic cooperation and bilateral trade will also be key topics.Putin has emphasized Russia’s ambition to elevate cooperation with both China and India,despite Western sanctions.
The issue of Russian oil is especially sensitive. While modi has affirmed India’s intention to continue purchasing Russian oil, new sanctions imposed by the US and EU, targeting companies involved in these transactions, have led to a slowdown in purchases by India’s private sector. Simultaneously, India has agreed to increase imports of US oil and gas, possibly as a gesture to appease concerns raised by Trump.
despite acknowledging “obstacles” in economic and energy cooperation, Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, anticipates onyl “insignificant drops” in Russian oil exports to India, and believes Moscow possesses the means to circumvent sanctions long-term.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, analysts predict modi will likely reiterate India’s calls for peace, but is unlikely to significantly influence the situation. Pande noted, “India doesn’t have the leverage to make a difference on either side,” beyond encouraging dialogue between Russia and Ukraine.
