Rising Tensions: Why Another India-Pakistan Clash Looks Likely
Recent developments suggest a heightened risk of renewed conflict between India and Pakistan, driven by Pakistan’s potential attempts to regain regional relevance through escalating tensions.This dynamic is complicated by evolving perceptions within India regarding Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and a growing U.S. engagement with Islamabad that some analysts believe inadvertently supports destabilizing behavior.
The May 2025 conflict, referred to by India as Operation Sindoor – a series of strikes targeting Pakistani terrorist and military infrastructure – has established a concerning precedent. Pakistan is likely to employ nuclear saber-rattling as a means to secure a ceasefire in any future confrontation.However, Indian strategists are increasingly viewing these nuclear threats not as genuine deterrence, but as coercive posturing intended to elicit intervention from the United States.
This shift in perspective is significant. Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi has explicitly warned that any future operation would be “far more severe” than Operation sindoor. He further emphasized that “land remains the currency of victory in wars,” signaling a potential willingness to pursue limited territorial gains in pakistan-occupied areas of Jammu and Kashmir should hostilities resume.
The May conflict has also challenged Pakistan’s long-held “bleeding India with a thousand cuts” doctrine – a strategy of supporting asymmetric warfare. A further confrontation risks exposing the fragility of this approach and dramatically altering the deterrence dynamics in South Asia. India appears to be calculating that it can launch limited conventional offensives to degrade Pakistan’s militant infrastructure and achieve limited territorial objectives,while concurrently testing the veracity of Islamabad’s nuclear threats.
For the United States,this situation presents a complex dilemma. As previously outlined in The Cipher Brief in September, American national security interests are increasingly misaligned with Pakistan’s regional objectives. Washington’s growing diplomatic and economic engagement with Pakistan carries the risk of undermining long-term regional stability if it doesn’t address Islamabad’s perceived duplicity – maintaining a facade of counterterrorism cooperation while simultaneously supporting militant proxies.
A reevaluation of U.S. strategy towards Pakistan is crucial. The United States should leverage its influence and aid frameworks to condition engagement on demonstrable counterterror reforms.These reforms should include the dismantling of militant networks, stricter digital financial oversight, and a complete cessation of cross-border militant activity. Without such conditions, the U.S. risks inadvertently legitimizing a regime that actively contributes to regional instability.
