Critical Launchpad Damage Threatens ISS Supply, Crew Access
BAIKONUR COSMODROME, KAZAKHSTAN – November 29, 2023 – A damaged launchpad at Russia’s Baikonur Cosmodrome, the sole facility capable of launching crew to the International Space Station (ISS), poses a significant challenge to ongoing operations and future missions. The incident occurred following a recent Soyuz flight and could disrupt both crew rotation and essential cargo deliveries, perhaps impacting the long-term viability of the orbiting laboratory.
The compromised Site 31, originally constructed for intercontinental ballistic missiles and modernized in 2005 for Soyuz-2 rockets, is currently estimated to require at least two years for repair. This setback introduces considerable uncertainty into ISS logistics, as SpaceX, while capable of handling some crew and cargo transport, cannot independently fulfill all necessary functions, including refueling Russian module engines which rely on Russian spacecraft. Roscosmos maintains that spare parts are available, suggesting the two-year timeframe represents a conservative estimate of the repair duration.
The immediate outcome of the damage is the likely postponement of the next Progress freighter launch, scheduled for December 19. This unmanned cargo vessel is crucial for delivering supplies, fuel, and equipment to the ISS. The situation highlights a past strategic misstep by Roscosmos: a planned upgrade for the historic Site 1 (Gagarin’s Start) was cancelled, a decision now potentially regretted given the current predicament.
While repairs are underway, Roscosmos is exploring option solutions, including sourcing spare parts from mothballed facilities, potentially even a site at Arianespace’s Kourou spaceport in French Guiana. NASA has been contacted for comment regarding the implications of a delayed progress mission, but has not yet responded. The incident underscores the ISS’s reliance on international cooperation and the vulnerability created by limited launch infrastructure.
