WASHINGTON – A new report from a prominent U.S. think tank concludes that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan is “extremely unlikely,” arguing that the United States should recalibrate its defense investments and de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The study, released today by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, challenges prevailing assumptions about Beijing‘s intentions and proposes a shift in U.S.strategy focused on diplomatic engagement and reduced military posturing.The report’s findings arrive amid heightened geopolitical anxieties surrounding Taiwan, a self-governed island claimed by China. While U.S. policymakers have largely operated under the premise of a potential near-term invasion, Carnegie’s analysis suggests this threat is overstated, potentially leading to miscalculations and an unnecessary arms race. The recommendations carry notable implications for the Biden administration’s approach to the indo-Pacific region, impacting defense budgets, diplomatic priorities, and the overall stability of a critical global flashpoint.
Researchers detailed that China faces substantial military,economic,and political obstacles to a triumphant invasion,citing the island’s formidable defenses,the potential for massive casualties,and the risk of crippling international sanctions. The report asserts that Beijing’s primary objective is not necessarily to seize Taiwan by force, but rather to deter formal independence and ultimately achieve unification through peaceful means.
“The probability of a full-scale invasion remains remarkably low,” stated michael Swaine, a senior fellow at Carnegie and lead author of the report. “The costs and risks for China are simply too high, and the benefits too uncertain.”
The study advocates for a U.S. policy shift away from a strategy of “deterrence by denial” – which emphasizes bolstering Taiwan’s military capabilities to resist an invasion – towards a strategy of “deterrence by cost imposition.” This would involve focusing on strengthening U.S. economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure on China, while together reducing the U.S. military footprint in the region.
The report suggests redirecting funds currently allocated to defense investments in the Taiwan Strait towards other areas of strategic importance, such as cybersecurity and climate change. It also calls for increased dialog between Washington and Beijing to manage tensions and establish clearer communication channels.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is a non-profit, non-partisan think tank dedicated to advancing international peace and security. The full report, titled “Avoiding Crisis: Rethinking U.S. Strategy Toward China and Taiwan,” is available on the organization’s website.
