EU-China Summit Navigates Troubled Waters Amidst US Trade Tensions

Beijing hosts critical dialogue as global economic landscape shifts

China and the European Union convene for a pivotal high-level meeting in Beijing, facing escalating trade disputes and the complicating influence of United States policies. The summit, already shortened and moved, signals the strain on EU-China relations.

Deepening Divides Cloud Summit Outlook

A history of disagreements over trade, technology, and security has intensified between Beijing and Brussels. Recent EU restrictions on Chinese firms participating in medical device tenders within the bloc led to retaliatory measures from China, highlighting the fragility of their economic ties.

The bilateral relationship, marking 50 years, has seen a reduction from a two-day to a one-day summit, widely interpreted as a reflection of these strained connections. Jörn Fleck, senior director at the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, observed, Relations between Brussels and Beijing are particularly tense.

“The EU and China have more to argue about than they agree on, even if neither side can afford to let the relationship deteriorate much further given the global outlook and their respective economic positions.”

—Jörn Fleck, Senior Director at the Europe Center, Atlantic Council

US Policies: A Tangled Web

The U.S. presidential administration’s tariff policies introduce another layer of complexity. Emre Peker, director for Europe at Eurasia Group, stated, Largely irreconcilable EU-China differences will severely constrain potential cooperation, despite mutual interest in countering some of President Trump’s policies — led by US trade measures and unilateralism.

U.S. actions could further exacerbate EU-China relations. Peker suggested that any U.S. pressure on the EU during trade talks might prompt Brussels to adopt a firmer stance against China, particularly concerning supply chains and export controls.

In 2024, trade between the EU and China exceeded 845 billion euros ($989 billion), representing nearly 30% of global trade, according to the European Council. This significant economic interdependence underscores the potential impact of geopolitical shifts.

Henrietta Levin, a senior fellow at the Freeman Chair in China Studies at CSIS, noted that China might seek to influence EU negotiations with the U.S. Chinese leaders may press their European counterparts on the EU’s ongoing trade negotiations with the United States, urging them to reject any measures that would disadvantage China, Levin explained.

The ongoing EU-U.S. trade talks, with the EU facing potential 30% tariffs on its exports from August 1, are contrasted with a June agreement between China and the U.S. on tech regulations and rare earth provisions. Levin added that President Trump’s assertive approach towards the EU could hinder the bloc’s ability to counter China. It will be difficult for the EU to stand up to China’s economic coercion while also managing largescale economic coercion from its American allies, she concluded.

Limited Expectations for Breakthroughs

Analysts hold modest expectations for the current summit. Fleck indicated that the mere continuation of the dialogue is a primary outcome, stating, That the summit is going forward is likely to be the biggest deliverable. The best-case scenario involves agreements to maintain discussions on critical issues like tariffs, market access, Chinese subsidies, and overcapacity.

The confirmation of meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with European Council President Antonio Costa, is seen as a positive development. However, Lukas Fiala, project coordinator of the China Foresight programme at LSE IDEAS, anticipates only minor shifts.

The summit can hardly reset years of economic and geopolitical tensions between the two sides, Fiala commented, attributing worsening relations to “structural and longer-term” factors. He also noted that differing views among EU member states complicate a unified stance toward China.

Fiala plans to monitor subtle changes, particularly regarding language on export controls for electric vehicles and rare earths. I will look out for smaller changes and language related to export controls on EVs and rare earths during and after the summit, but do not expect a big shift in the status quo, he concluded.