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The United States is Pushing Southeast Asia Towards China

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Analysis of US-ASEAN Relations and Great Power Competition

The Association of Southeast asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises states that, individually, do not possess the capacity to engage in direct competition with major global powers. Public and governmental sentiment within these nations generally favors neutrality in the current geopolitical landscape. Tho, recent trade policies, specifically tariffs implemented by the United States, are perceived as pressuring these states to align with American interests. Reports suggest that proposals made to the Thai delegation included obligations for Thailand to impose tariffs on third parties in accordance with US tariff policies, a proposition that was reportedly met with skepticism.This approach is interpreted by some as an attempt to exert extraterritorial influence, drawing parallels to past colonial practices. The intricate trade and security interdependencies within the region position ASEAN as a focal point for great power competition.

China has increasingly directed its trade towards ASEAN nations, establishing it as a primary trade partner.The recent ASEAN Ministerial Meeting saw the declaration of an upgraded ASEAN-China Free Trade area (FTA), signaling a deepening of economic ties. Considering the evolving global power dynamics, the growing economic significance and geographical proximity of China, and the perceived decline in US influence, ther is a possibility that ASEAN states may prioritize economic prosperity if faced with a choice between economic benefits and security assurances. The perceived lack of substantial new economic initiatives from the US in the region has led to questions among regional leaders regarding america’s long-term strategic vision. A statement from Singapore’s Defense Minister characterized the US approach as that of a “landlord seeking rent.”

Observations

Current US policy appears to lack thorough long-term economic strategies. The implementation of tariffs, reportedly aimed at addressing budget deficits and facilitating supply chain realignments, has also impacted established allies.The nature of US engagement in Southeast Asia is frequently enough described as primarily focused on security-related matters. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, initiated in 2015, is noted as the last significant economic initiative from the US. The US approach is increasingly characterized by assertive tactics, which are sometimes perceived as heavy-handed and potentially undiplomatic, as evidenced by the tone of tariff notifications. This approach, which contrasts with interactions among allies, has reportedly generated negative sentiment regarding national honor and sovereignty within the region. Should China adopt policies that open its markets, similar to its approach with African nations, there is a potential for ASEAN states to gravitate towards China, with the exception of the Philippines. This shift, it is noted, may occur despite the general goodwill that the US historically enjoys in the region, as the current assertive tactics are seen as potentially alienating.

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