Italian Students Tackle Dice Probability in Challenging Exam

The “Venus Shots” Problem: A Test of Chance and Ancient History

Over half a million Italian students faced a complex probability problem in their 2025 maturity exam. The question, titled “Shots of Venus,” involved calculating the likelihood of specific outcomes when rolling four four-sided dice. This intriguing challenge blended mathematics with a touch of ancient Roman history.

The “Shots of Venus” Question Explained

The exam required students to determine the probability of achieving the “Venus shot” – a dice configuration showing four different results when launching four dice. Additionally, the probability of attaining four identical numbers needed calculation. The question drew a parallel to ancient Rome, where dice, or Astragal, were employed for divination and gambling.

“The subject? It looked -named “Shots of Venus” That is, the situation where 4 4 ​​-faced dice are launched and achieve 4 different results. In a time of old Rome, the most lucky dice configuration was considered.”

—Article Author, Title

Probability is fundamentally the ratio of favorable outcomes to all possible outcomes. For the “Venus shot,” we can consider the favorable cases where all four dice show different numbers. The total possible combinations also must be calculated.

Calculating the Probability

The number of favorable cases for the “Venus shot” is determined by considering the options for each die. The first die has four possibilities. Once the first die’s result is known, the second die has three remaining possibilities, the third has two, and the fourth has only one favorable outcome. This leads to 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 24 favorable cases.

Considering all possible outcomes, each of the four dice has four possible outcomes, resulting in 4 * 4 * 4 * 4 = 256 total possibilities. Therefore, the probability of hitting the “Venus shot” is 24/256, which is around 9.375%. This is relatively unlikely, although not as improbable as other games.

Probability of Matching Numbers

The exam question also asked for the probability of rolling four identical numbers. The total possible outcomes are still 256. However, there are only four favorable cases where all dice show the same number. Therefore, the probability of getting four equal numbers is 4/256, or about 1.56%.

According to the Statista, the house edge for a single-zero roulette game is approximately 2.7%, making the odds of the dice roll less likely than guessing a number on the roulette wheel.