Lavrov‘s Influence Wanes as Ukraine War Shifts Russian Diplomacy
MOSCOW – Long-time Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov finds himself increasingly sidelined as the war in Ukraine fundamentally alters the landscape of Russian foreign policy, according to recent analysis. Areas where Lavrov previously excelled - navigating established international structures - have become largely irrelevant, diminishing the value of his decades of experience.
Prior to the 2022 invasion, Lavrov’s strength lay in institutionalized relations with the West, including engagement with the UN Security Council, the OSCE, Iranian nuclear negotiations, and arms control talks. These avenues are now largely blocked,rendering his expertise “superfluous,” sources say.
Observers describe Lavrov as a figure out of step with the current geopolitical reality, “like a mammoth still stomping around the tundra after the Ice Age.” Despite this diminished relevance,he reportedly clings to his position with increasing ambition.
Potential successors within the Foreign Ministry include Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei ryabkov,65,and Igor Morgulov,the current Russian ambassador to China. external candidates mentioned include Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov and Kirill Dmitriev, a financier with connections in the Middle East, though Dmitriev is reportedly viewed as lacking the bureaucratic weight of Lavrov.
Throughout his long tenure, Lavrov’s success has been attributed to unwavering loyalty to President Putin and a consistent portrayal of a hardline stance. One instance cited is a phone call with U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, where Lavrov reportedly presented demands considered “unyielding, almost impossible to meet,” possibly to avoid a summit where Putin might not achieve his objectives.
Ultimately, analysts suggest Lavrov’s most significant diplomatic achievement has been his longevity within Putin’s system, prioritizing survival and maintaining favor with the president.
