Lavrov‘s Influence Wanes as Ukraine War Shifts Russian Diplomacy
MOSCOW – Long-time Russian Foreign Minister Sergey lavrov finds himself increasingly sidelined as the war in Ukraine fundamentally alters the landscape of Russian foreign policy, according to recent analysis. areas where Lavrov previously excelled - navigating established international structures – have become largely irrelevant, diminishing the value of his decades of experience.
prior to the 2022 invasion, Lavrov’s strength lay in institutionalized relations with the West, including engagement with bodies like the UN Security Council, the OSCE, and negotiations surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and arms control. These avenues are now largely blocked, rendering his expertise “superfluous,” sources say.
Observers describe Lavrov as a product of a system built for formal diplomacy,now struggling to justify actions dictated by President Putin. He is likened to “a mammoth still stomping around the tundra after the Ice Age,” a figure whose time has passed. Despite this diminished relevance, reports indicate Lavrov has clung to his position with increasing ambition in recent years.
Potential successors within the Foreign Ministry include Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, 65, and Igor Morgulov, the current Russian ambassador to China. External candidates reportedly considered include Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov and Kirill Dmitriev, a financier with connections in the Middle East, though Dmitriev is reportedly viewed as lacking the bureaucratic weight of Lavrov.
Sources emphasize that Lavrov’s longevity in the role stemmed from unwavering loyalty to Putin and a consistent portrayal of a hardline stance. One example cited is a phone call with U.S.Senator Marco rubio, where Lavrov reportedly presented demands considered “unyielding, almost unachievable to meet,” potentially to avoid a summit where Putin might not achieve his objectives.
Ultimately, analysts suggest Lavrov’s most successful diplomatic maneuver has been his sustained survival within Putin’s system.
(This article was created in cooperation with telegraph.co.uk)
