Weight Loss Drugs Threaten $55B in Food Sales, Spur Industry Shift

Novel York City – Clinton Hall unveiled its “Teeny Weeny Mini Meal” in December 2025: a miniature burger, accompanying mini fries, and a small-format beer. The offering is a direct response to a growing trend reshaping the American food landscape, as restaurants and food manufacturers grapple with the increasing adoption of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, and Zepbound.

Approximately one in eight American adults were taking a GLP-1 agonist as of November 2025, according to a poll by the KFF Health Tracking Poll. These drugs, initially developed for managing type 2 diabetes, have gained popularity for their weight-loss effects by slowing digestion and suppressing appetite. The potential impact on the food and beverage industry is substantial, with JPMorgan estimating a potential loss of $30 billion to $55 billion in annual sales by 2030.

Data from KPMG indicates that adults using GLP-1s consume, on average, 21% fewer calories and reduce their grocery bills by nearly a third. The shift is prompting a re-evaluation of strategies across the industry. “Whether it is labeling as GLP-1 friendly, decreasing the serving size, emphasizing protein content, or even when you shift over to the beverage world, because hydration is certainly a concern, there are a number of players that are starting to react to this,” said Don K. Johnson, principal of strategy and execution for EY-Parthenon.

The impact isn’t uniform. Snacking has been particularly affected, with 70% of GLP-1 users reporting reduced snacking, according to an EY-Parthenon survey conducted last spring. Although overall snacking is down, there’s a discernible shift towards healthier options like yogurt, nuts, and fruit. Protein intake is too becoming more important, as users seek to mitigate potential muscle loss associated with reduced caloric intake. Hydration is also a key consideration, as GLP-1 drugs can cause side effects like nausea and headaches.

Restaurant dining is also experiencing a change. Roughly 60% of respondents to the EY-Parthenon survey reported dining out less frequently. Alcohol consumption with meals is also declining, with 45% of those eating and drinking less also reporting reduced alcohol intake. Bernstein analysts estimate that restaurant visits among GLP-1 users could decrease by as much as 45%, depending on the type of establishment and occasion.

The impact on restaurant traffic varies by meal. Breakfast has seen a more significant decline, particularly among higher-income GLP-1 users, according to Dana Baggett, executive director of restaurant client strategy at RRD. Dinner, especially at rapid-food restaurants, has also been affected, with traffic falling 6% among regular GLP-1 users, representing a 0.4% overall decline in dinner sales, according to Baggett’s analysis.

Food companies are responding. PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta acknowledged the trend in an earnings call in February, noting both opportunities and threats. The company has recently launched protein-packed Doritos, relaunched Gatorade, and introduced fiber-rich varieties of SunChips and Smartfood popcorn. Domino’s Pizza CEO Russell Weiner stated that the chain hadn’t yet seen an impact on sales, but would consider menu innovation if necessary.

McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski highlighted the chain’s existing protein options during an earnings call last month, adding that the preferences of GLP-1 users are being considered in new menu development. He also noted shifts in beverage choices, with a move away from sugary drinks.

Several restaurant chains have already begun adapting their menus. Chipotle launched grab-and-move protein cups in December, while Olive Garden introduced a “Lighter Portions” menu in 2025, offering smaller entrees at a lower price. Darden Restaurants CEO Rick Cardenas said the new menu was intended to provide more options for all customers, but acknowledged its appeal to those on GLP-1 medications.

Nestlé launched Virtual Pursuit, a frozen-food brand specifically targeting GLP-1 users in 2024, later updating packaging to prominently feature its “GLP-1 friendly” attributes. Nestlé USA CEO Marty Thompson indicated plans to expand into beverages, including protein shakes. J&J Snack Foods, the parent company of Dippin’ Dots and Icee, is also adapting, adding protein to its soft pretzels and introducing a “mini pop size” for Luigi’s Italian Ice with added antioxidants and hydration benefits.

While current data informs industry strategies, the long-term impact remains uncertain. Approximately 5% of GLP-1 users discontinue apply due to cost, side effects, or achieving their weight-loss goals, often maintaining their modified eating habits for a period before reverting to higher caloric intake. The introduction of oral GLP-1 medications is expected to broaden adoption, but the behavior of those users remains to be seen.

EY’s Johnson noted that the cycle of starting and stopping GLP-1 medications will create a complex dynamic for food manufacturers. J&J Snack Foods CEO Dan Fachner challenged employees over a year ago to adapt core products to be more “GLP-1 friendly,” a process that continues as the company introduces new offerings.