US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Expiry: A Call for China’s Role in New Arms Control

The New START treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between the United States and Russia limiting strategic nuclear weapons, expired on February 5, 2026, leaving the two nations without binding constraints on their nuclear arsenals for the first time in over five decades.

The lapse of the treaty, initially signed in 2010, removes limits on the number of deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers. The expiration follows a rejection by U.S. President Donald Trump of a proposal from Russian President Vladimir Putin to extend the treaty’s limits for one year, adhering to the 2010 accord’s cap of 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery systems.

Trump announced his decision via a post on Truth Social, stating that rather than extend “New START,” which he characterized as a “badly negotiated deal” and “grossly violated,” his administration would task nuclear experts with developing a “new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated Russia remained open to dialogue if the U.S. Responded constructively to Putin’s proposal. “Listen, if there are any constructive replies, of course we will conduct a dialogue,” Peskov told reporters, according to Reuters. Still, as of February 22, 2026, no such dialogue has commenced.

The end of New START marks a significant shift in U.S. Nuclear policy. Since the treaty lapsed, the Trump administration has signaled it may deploy more nuclear weapons and resume nuclear testing, a departure from policies maintained since the early 1990s. Trump has stated his desire to restart nuclear detonations “on an equal basis” with China and Russia, having last conducted a nuclear test in 1992.

Details regarding potential increases in the U.S. Nuclear arsenal remain vague, with officials mentioning “various scenarios” including the reuse of weapons currently in storage. Jill Hruby, former head of the National Nuclear Security Agency, described the situation as “very confusing,” noting the lack of clarity surrounding specific numbers or test formats.

The expiration of New START follows a period of strained relations between the U.S. And Russia. Putin had previously offered a five-year extension of the treaty, which was accepted by former U.S. President Joe Biden in 2021. The treaty allowed for only a single extension, and the current administration chose not to pursue further negotiations.

Security analysts warn that the absence of New START creates a more dangerous environment, increasing the risk of miscalculation and a renewed arms race. The treaty’s inspection regimes, which fostered trust and confidence between the two nuclear adversaries, are now absent.

As of February 22, 2026, the U.S. Administration has not announced a specific timeline or plan for negotiating a replacement treaty. The White House has not issued a further statement regarding the potential for increased nuclear deployments or resumed testing beyond initial indications from the President.