The Shifting Sands of strategic Partnerships: US-India Relations, Australia, and the Rise of China
Recent developments, including Australia’s revised stance on uranium exports to India, are prompting a critical reassessment of the strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific. The question arises: are we witnessing a fundamental reframing of the US-India relationship, moving beyond trade disputes towards a broader strategic shift? or will disagreements over market access ultimately be resolved?
This inquiry leads to a larger, more concerning possibility: is President Trump reconsidering India’s role as a vital partner in countering China’s growing regional influence? This isn’t solely a bilateral issue for Washington and New Delhi; it directly impacts the strategic alignment that has increasingly defined Australia-India relations.
Both australia and India have independently arrived at a point where a strengthened partnership is seen as valuable, irrespective of the future direction of the US-India dynamic. Historically, Australia viewed india as a key component in balancing China’s power, a balance led by the United States and including nations like Japan, all wary of Chinese hegemony. This underpinned the formation of the Quad – a geopolitical construct aimed at collective security. Though, its continued relevance is now uncertain. While the State Department and Pentagon remain strong advocates for the Quad, President Trump’s unilateralist instincts clash with the group’s premise of collaborative action. Furthermore, Trump’s focus leans towards geo-economics, while the Quad is fundamentally a geopolitical alliance.
The ambiguity surrounding Trump’s broader view of China adds another layer of complexity. While he appears to desire a significant agreement with China, the nature of that deal – and its implications for india and Australia - remain unclear. will it be limited to trade and tariffs, or will it involve a strategic accommodation, potentially even a G2 arrangement where the US implicitly acknowledges a Chinese sphere of influence? While a full G2 scenario seems improbable, it would fundamentally alter the strategic surroundings for both australia and India.
Shoudl US policy towards China undergo a significant shift, a recalibration of the Australia-India strategic relationship will be necessary. The specifics of this reframing will depend on how both nations reassess their own strategic priorities. A move towards a renewed, narrow strategic autonomy for India, reminiscent of its historical non-aligned stance, could weaken the partnership with Australia. Though, a more likely outcome is a deepening of the Australia-India relationship as a countermeasure to any perceived US policy shift.The economic dimension of the Australia-India relationship is also vulnerable to global economic trends. Trump’s protectionist trade policies are likely to slow global trade and investment, potentially impacting economic growth in both Australia and India, even if bilateral economic ties continue to expand.
India is also beginning to re-evaluate its approach to market access, signaling a potential shift, albeit a cautious one, towards greater openness. This could improve the prospects for concluding the long-delayed Complete Economic Cooperation Agreement. Though,Australia must remain vigilant regarding potential risks to its market access in India,particularly in agriculture,should a US-India Free Trade Agreement be finalized.
