UNDP: El Niño and Global Shocks Threaten Food Security in LAC
An intensifying El Niño phenomenon is converging with geopolitical supply shocks to threaten food security across Latin America and the Caribbean, according to a report published by undp.org on October 26, 2026.
Super El Niño Intensifies Across the Pacific
The climate phenomenon is firmly established in the central and eastern tropical Pacific with unusually warm surface temperatures. Forecasts indicate this episode could rank among the most intense recorded since 1980. The impacts will vary widely across Latin America and the Caribbean. Extreme droughts are expected in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, and Brazil. Meanwhile, heavy rains, floods, and landslides threaten the Southern Cone. These weather extremes risk reducing harvests, straining energy generation, and pressuring food systems.
Middle East Disruptions Spike Energy and Fertilizer Costs
Climate stress arrives alongside global trade disruptions originating in the Middle East. Interruptions in the Strait of Ormuz sent energy and fertilizer prices surging earlier this year. At the crisis peak in April 2026, energy and fertilizer price indexes exceeded their April 2025 levels by more than 60 percent, according to undp.org data. Higher fuel costs drive up farm operations, irrigation expenses, and transportation charges from farms to markets. These overlapping pressures follow earlier market shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine in 2022.
Heavy Import Dependence Amplifies Regional Vulnerabilities
Consequently, a portion of the region’s population faced moderate or severe food insecurity, undp.org reported, despite earlier progress in reducing hunger.
Social Investments Reduce Hunger in South America
The current climate and trade threats build on a difficult post-pandemic recovery. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, hunger in Latin America and the Caribbean reached a peak of 6.9 percent of the population in 2021, while 40.6 percent faced moderate or severe food insecurity, fao.org reported. In the last two years, targeted investments in social protection systems helped drive a decline in hunger down to 6.2 percent, reducing the affected population by 4.3 million mostly in South America. However, fao.org noted that Central America and the Caribbean continue to struggle with rising hunger.
Governments Must Combine Climate Forecasts with Production Data
Governments are urged to combine climate forecasts with price and production data to anticipate shocks before they hit. Meanwhile, addressing structural weaknesses remains essential for long-term resilience as the region manages the peak of the crisis through 2027.