European intelligence chiefs are increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for a peace agreement in Ukraine this year, despite assertions from the U.S. Administration that American-mediated discussions are bringing a resolution closer. Reuters reported that five European intelligence services believe Moscow is not genuinely committed to ending the conflict quickly.
Four of the intelligence agencies indicated Russia is likely using negotiations with Washington as leverage to secure sanctions relief and new trade agreements. The latest round of these talks took place earlier this week in Geneva. One source described the discussions as a “negotiating theater,” suggesting a lack of substantive progress.
This assessment reveals a significant divergence between European capitals and the White House, with Kyiv reportedly accusing the Trump administration of seeking a peace deal before the U.S. Midterm elections in November, according to Reuters. President Trump has publicly expressed confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin desires an agreement.
“Russia is not seeking a peace deal. It is continuing to pursue its strategic objectives, and those have not changed,” one European intelligence chief stated. Those objectives reportedly include the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the establishment of Ukraine as a neutral buffer state between Russia and the West.
Another intelligence official asserted that Russia “does not want or need a quick peace,” arguing that the Russian economy is “not on the verge of collapse.” A third source dismissed the notion that Ukraine ceding the Donetsk region would swiftly lead to a peace agreement, contending that even full control of the region would not enable Moscow to achieve its primary goal of overthrowing Kyiv’s pro-Western government.
The intelligence agencies did not disclose the origins of their information, but confirmed their reliance on human sources, intercepted communications, and other intelligence-gathering methods. All sources affirmed that Russia remains a top intelligence priority.
Concerns were similarly raised regarding a “very limited” level of expertise in negotiating with Moscow within Western Europe, including on the European side, even as President Zelenskyy advocates for a more active European role in the peace talks. According to a report from The Guardian, Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner met with delegates from Russia and Ukraine in Geneva on February 17, 2026, in the latest attempt to broker a deal.
The U.S. President has been pushing for an end to the conflict, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, but previous U.S.-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi failed to yield a breakthrough. As reported by Al Jazeera, Trump claimed during his 2024 presidential campaign that he could broker a ceasefire in Ukraine within “24 hours,” a promise he has yet to fulfill.
According to a 28-point plan outlined by President Trump in November 2025, as reported by The New York Times, the U.S. Administration is pressing Kyiv to accept an outcome that concedes to President Putin’s demands. The next round of talks between the U.S. And Russia is scheduled, but no date has been publicly announced.
