Here’s a breakdown of the provided text, focusing on the key points and arguments:
Main Argument: The author believes that while the new economic pressure on Russia is a step in the right direction, it might not be fully effective due to practical implementation challenges. Though,there’s a positive shift in US-european alignment on Ukraine,and Trump’s current stance,if maintained,coudl be a meaningful factor in pressuring Putin.
Key Points:
Economic pressure on Russia:
Positive Targets: 100% secondary tariffs and the bipartisan Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill targeting Russian oil sales are seen as appropriate measures.
Practical Challenges: Tariffs on countries that buy a lot of Russian oil (like China and India) are deemed impractical due to complex trade relationships.
Potential Betterment: The Graham-Blumenthal bill could be more effective with a waiver option for countries that significantly reduce oil purchases, a strategy that worked with Iran.
Trump’s Shift and Cooperation:
Forceful Backing: This is described as Trump’s most significant support for Ukraine to date.
Zelensky’s response: Ukraine’s president Zelensky is reorganizing his government to foster strong cooperation with Washington.
reasons for Trump’s “U-Turn”:
European Influence: European leaders, notably Rutte, played a role in aligning with the US President.
growing irritation with Putin: Trump has expressed frustration with Putin’s deceptive behavior regarding ceasefires and subsequent actions.
Historical Context of US-Russia Relations:
Past Failures: Previous US presidents,including Trump,have attempted to improve ties with Putin but failed because Putin’s demands involved allowing Russian oppression at home and aggression abroad,treating neighbors like provinces of a restored empire.
Author’s Experience: The author, having worked for both George W. Bush and Obama, states that neither president would accept such terms.
Current Situation and Outlook:
US-Europe Alignment: after six months of Trump’s second term, the US and Europe appear to be on the same page regarding Ukraine. Russia’s Vulnerabilities: russia’s economy is vulnerable, and its war casualties are high with minimal territorial gains.
* Putin’s Potential Downfall: Putin’s “arrogance” in demanding total Ukrainian surrender could be his undoing, provided Trump remains steadfast in his current position.
In essence, the text argues that while the economic tools being considered have practical limitations, the renewed unity between the US and Europe, driven by a growing weariness of Putin’s actions, presents a significant chance to pressure Russia. The author emphasizes the importance of Trump maintaining his current stance for this strategy to succeed.
