Trump Shifts Tactics on Iran: From Threat of Attack to Diplomatic Talks
West Palm Beach, Florida – A threatened strike against Iranian power plants was averted late Sunday as President Donald Trump announced a shift in strategy, pivoting towards diplomatic talks with an unnamed Iranian official. The move came as the strategic Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to commercial traffic, despite Trump’s earlier ultimatum demanding its reopening within 48 hours or face military action.
“They want to make a deal and we’re going to make a deal,” Trump said Monday, extending his ultimatum by five days and suggesting “a very real possibility” of a resolution. The abrupt change followed mounting pressure from Gulf allies and anxieties over potential market instability, marking the latest in a series of erratic shifts in approach to the conflict over the past 24 days.
Still, the shift does not necessarily signal a breakthrough. Former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis cautioned that the situation remains precarious. “We’re in a very complicated position and I can’t identify great options, although a group of ships with (around 2,500) Marines aboard are on the way to the gulf” to reinforce existing naval deployments, he stated Monday at CERAWeek in Houston. “If we had three rational agents, we could say we’re at a stalemate or we’re going to escalate, because none of the involved parties currently have the ability to move the other from their current position.”
The “conversations” Trump described appear to be preliminary contacts, facilitated by intermediaries, with little indication of success. Several nations – Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan – are attempting to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, spoke with Trump on Sunday, while the country’s Prime Minister held talks with Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian on Monday. Vice President J.D. Vance has been in communication with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding potential components of an agreement, according to Axios. Presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have reportedly been in contact since Saturday with the unidentified Iranian figure.
U.S. Media outlets have suggested that the interlocutor is Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohamed Bager Qalibaf, a claim he has denied on social media. Washington, according to Politico, is also examining Qalibaf as a potential future leader in Iran, hoping to find a figure willing to align with U.S. Interests in a manner similar to Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela.
The escalating conflict is proving costly. The Pentagon is seeking an additional $200 billion from Congress, with military expenses reaching $16.5 billion in the first twelve days of war and increasing by $500 million daily, according to estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The war is unpopular domestically, and comments like those of Senator Lindsey Graham, who compared a potential assault on the Iranian island of Jarg to the World War II battle of Iwo Jima, are unlikely to improve public opinion.
Despite Monday’s announcement, markets remain volatile, and gasoline prices remain high, a factor that could prove damaging to the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections. Arab allies in the Middle East have expressed concerns about the potential consequences of escalation, warning that a devastated Iran could become a source of regional instability for years to approach.
“There is enormous discontent among the Gulf states who have been dragged into this without prior consultation, without time to better prepare, and the idea that they had a stable future in which their societies and investments would flourish has been called into question” as a result of the conflict, Mattis stated at the Houston energy conference.
Trump’s ability to declare victory and withdraw from the conflict is limited by Iran’s potential to continue hostilities or maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, a situation that would create significant problems for its allies in the Persian Gulf. “For Trump to pack it in, he has to be able to say he’s won, and he has to believe it. But as this war goes on, and it becomes clear that it’s a disaster, his ability to declare victory and withdraw diminishes. There’s a very short window for Trump to find a way out of this war and that means he has to be willing not only to say he’s talked to the Iranians, but also to put things on the table, like the removal of sanctions,” explained Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Trump indicated Monday that he is considering a 15-point agreement with Iran, similar in format to a 20-point accord reached regarding Gaza in October. “Iran has agreed not to have nuclear weapons,” he stated. A draft of the proposal has reportedly been delivered to Tehran through mediators, according to CBS News.
The reception to the U.S. Proposal remains unclear. Iran, having already seen some sanctions partially lifted on its oil exports in high seas on Friday, currently has limited incentive to concede without significant concessions. As Parsi noted, “There is certainly a risk that the Iranians will receive too clever and won’t recognize the moment to cash in their chips and call it quits. Neither side can aspire to humiliate the other in this war. If they do, they will be digging themselves into an even bigger hole. Both sides must be able to construct some kind of narrative that allows them to end this war. In this sense, as improbable as it sounds, Iran and the United States are in a way in the same boat: either they sink together, or they row together to safety.”