Border control agents confronted demonstrators in Portland, Oregon, in October 2025, a scene that, according to historian Robert Kagan, illustrates a dangerous trajectory for American democracy. Kagan, in a recent interview with DER SPIEGEL, asserts that the United States under former President Trump is sliding toward dictatorship, a situation he believes represents a greater threat to global stability than the Cold War.
Kagan’s assessment, echoed in a February 4, 2026, interview on NPR’s Fresh Air, centers on what he describes as Trump’s systematic dismantling of democratic norms, disregard for legal constraints and increasingly authoritarian actions. Specifically, Kagan points to Trump’s call to nationalize elections as a key indicator of this shift, arguing it represents a move toward consolidating dictatorial power. NPR reported on Kagan’s concerns, highlighting his belief that the erosion of democratic institutions is already underway.
The historian’s warnings have grown increasingly stark over time. In 2023, Kagan predicted that Trump’s ultimate goal was dictatorship, a forecast that now appears, in his view, to be materializing. However, he admits to underestimating the extent of potential violence. “I didn’t anticipate this kind of military brutality in the streets,” Kagan told DER SPIEGEL, referring to the ICE militia’s killing of U.S. Citizens in Minneapolis. Spiegel Online detailed this admission, noting Kagan’s surprise at the willingness to employ force against domestic populations.
Kagan’s analysis extends beyond domestic policy, framing the situation within a broader geopolitical context. He contends that Trump’s actions are ushering in the most dangerous era since 1945, surpassing even the tensions of the Cold War. DER SPIEGEL reported that Kagan believes the world is facing unprecedented dangers under Trump’s leadership. This assessment reflects a concern that a weakened and internally fractured United States will be less capable of confronting global challenges and maintaining international order.
The ICE immigration crackdowns in cities like Minneapolis, which Kagan specifically cited, have drawn criticism from civil liberties groups and raised questions about the scope of federal authority. Kagan also suggests that some Trump administration policies are rooted in a history of Christian white supremacy, a claim that warrants further investigation but underscores the ideological underpinnings of the current political climate.
As of February 23, 2026, the Biden administration has not issued a formal response to Kagan’s latest warnings, nor has it announced any specific measures to address the concerns raised about the potential for authoritarianism. The Department of Justice has declined to comment on the ICE actions in Minneapolis, citing ongoing investigations. The future direction of American democracy, and its role on the world stage, remains uncertain.
The question of whether the United States is truly on the path to dictatorship remains open, but Kagan’s warnings, coupled with the events of the past year, have ignited a debate about the fragility of democratic institutions and the potential for a dangerous slide toward authoritarianism.
