Trump kicks off Florida campaign season with rally and Mar-a-Lago stay

Donald Trump kicks off his Florida campaign season with a Mar-a-Lago stay and an afternoon rally.

The Tech TL;DR:

• Voter Margin: Registered Florida Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by over 1.5 million.
• Ballot Shifts: Democrats have cast more vote-by-mail ballots so far, shifting Republican strategy toward early in-person voting.
• Campaign Schedule: Trump begins his Florida season after stops in Georgia, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Iowa.

Gubernatorial and Senate Races in Southwest Florida

Polls show Rep. Byron Donalds and Sen. Ashley Moody with marginal leads over their Democratic opponents in the gubernatorial and Senate races. The Fort Myers rally sits directly in the center of Donalds’ Southwest Florida district, which counts among the state’s most reliable Republican strongholds.

State data from the Division of Elections indicates that Democrats have cast more vote-by-mail ballots than Republicans. That pattern differs from historical trends where Republicans dominated mail voting in Florida, a method Trump began criticizing in 2020. Republicans now focus heavily on early in-person voting, which opens in major Florida counties. By the time the Fort Myers rally takes place on Friday, the actual volume of Republican turnout will be visible through early voting numbers.

Trump schedules rallies in Georgia and Kentucky

A top Florida Republican consultant described the current environment for the upcoming push. “It’s still Florida, and we still have more voters. But the environment isn’t great and, sure, no one turns out our base more than the president. I hope it works.”

The scheduled events span multiple states before the Florida arrival. On Friday, Trump overnights at Mar-a-Lago following a rally in Dalton, Georgia. On Saturday, he addresses supporters at Northern Kentucky University’s arena in Highland Heights, Kentucky, before returning to Palm Beach for a MAGA Inc. Candlelight Dinner. Sunday brings a return to the White House. Weekday stops include Wichita, Kansas, on Monday, Greenville, North Carolina, on Tuesday, Clemson, South Carolina, on Wednesday, and Sioux City, Iowa, on Thursday, ahead of the Friday rally with Donalds and Moody in Florida.