OPEC+ Establishes New Capacity Assessment Process, Holds Output Steady
OPEC+ ministers convened on Sunday and approved a new annual mechanism for evaluating and updating the crude oil production capacities of its member nations. The group simultaneously decided to maintain its existing output policy, according to a statement from the OPEC secretariat.
The newly established process will determine each member’s Maximum Lasting Capacity (MSC) – defined as the average maximum daily crude oil production achievable within 90 days and sustained for a full year, including planned maintenance - and will serve as the basis for setting production targets beginning in 2027.
To assess capacity, OPEC+ has contracted a US-based consulting firm to evaluate all member countries except Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. the firm’s identity remains undisclosed pending formal contract signing. Russia and Venezuela will undergo separate assessments conducted by a non-US firm, also yet to be named. Iran’s 2027 capacity will be calculated based on its average crude production during August, September, and October of 2026, as reported by OPEC’s secondary sources, including Argus.
This mechanism represents a significant step towards recalibrating the group’s long-term quota system, following previous contentious capacity assessments. Angola’s departure from OPEC in 2024 stemmed from disagreements over its assigned production target.
The MSC assessment process will commence in January 2026 and conclude by September. OPEC+ members will have the opportunity to repeat this evaluation annually, starting in March, to update their capacities. This means the process for 2028 will begin in March 2027.
Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, emphasized that the assessments will incentivize investment in upstream projects, considering planned drilling and new developments.
output Policy Remains Unchanged
In a separate decision, the eight core OPEC+ producers currently increasing output agreed to pause further increases in the first quarter. This group – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, kuwait, Russia, the UAE, Algeria, Oman, and Kazakhstan - collectively raised their output quota by 137,000 barrels per day (b/d) in December, following a prior agreement reached on November 2nd.
The pause follows the full unwinding of a 2.2 million b/d production cut implemented earlier in the year, and the partial reversal of an additional 1.65 million b/d cut, with 411,000 b/d unwound by the end of December.
The decision to hold steady reflects anticipated seasonal demand weakness in the first quarter, as well as uncertainties surrounding Russian crude production and exports due to recent US sanctions and ongoing geopolitical efforts.
Market perspectives remain divided.The International Energy agency (IEA) forecasts a supply surplus of 2.4 million b/d in 2025 and 4.1 million b/d in 2026,while OPEC anticipates a more balanced market driven by robust demand.
The eight producers are scheduled to reconvene on January 4, 2026, to review the situation.
