Gaza Ceasefire Reached, But Future Peace Remains Uncertain – Expert Warns of US Role
[City, date] – A ceasefire agreement between Hamas and israel has been approved by both sides, triggering the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and hostages held by Hamas – including both the living and the deceased. While hailed as a significant step, the agreement falls short of a lasting peace and carries substantial risks, according to autonomous Middle East expert Alexander Atarodi.
The agreement includes provisions for humanitarian aid to Gaza, to be organized by the United Nations, and potential, though currently undefined, Israeli withdrawal from parts of the territory. However, Atarodi emphasizes this is a ceasefire, not a peace treaty, meaning both parties are simply fulfilling agreed-upon obligations.
“This is a ceasefire and not a permanent peace.this means that both parties will do what they are obliged to do,” Atarodi stated.
Key concerns center around the lack of provisions for Hamas disarmament, a critical issue that leaves the possibility of future conflict open.The future governance of Gaza also presents a challenge, with Israel resisting both inclusion of the Palestinian Authority and continued Hamas rule, perhaps leading to a limited and unstable interim government.
“The biggest pitfalls are that we have no discussion about disarmament Hamas…Israel does not want Pa, the Palestinian authority, included in this rule but they do not want Hamas either,” Atarodi explained. “Then there will be a very small group of Palestinians who can be included.”
Perhaps the most significant uncertainty, according to Atarodi, lies with the United States’ long-term commitment to the process. he questioned weather US involvement is driven by genuine peace efforts or by political motivations, referencing speculation about former President Trump’s desire for a Nobel Peace Prize.
“The fourth pitfall is about the United States itself. We certainly know far too little about US intentions and whether they are permanent or are just linked to trump’s desire to receive the Nobel Prize,” he said. “Do the interest from the United States cool down then? These are the great risks that exist.”
The agreement currently lacks any concrete mechanisms for achieving a two-state solution. While it addresses reconstruction in Gaza and aims to prevent displacement and further Israeli occupation, it postpones addressing the essential political issues.
Atarodi suggests a potential scenario of a “frozen conflict” for years to come - a period without major warfare, but also without a lasting political resolution. He notes Israel will maintain significant military capacity and the ability to intervene in Gaza,mirroring its current posture in Southern Lebanon.
“There is a risk or opportunity, depending on how you now see it, that we will have a frozen conflict for a few years to come without a political solution. But no war either. At least not to the extent we have seen,” Atarodi concluded. “There is no discussion about a two-state solution right now.”
Jon Andersson
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