AI Demand Surges Electricity Use in North America, But Global Emissions Forecast Remains Positive
Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming the largest single driver of electricity demand in North America, according to a new energy transition outlook report by DNV. The surge in power consumption from AI data centers is prompting calls for expedited infrastructure development, even if it means temporarily loosening environmental regulations. Despite this push and a rollback of environmental rules under the Trump administration, the report forecasts a 63% drop in global emissions by 2060, largely due to decarbonization efforts in China and the global adoption of its clean technology.
The escalating energy needs of AI are creating a tension between technological advancement and environmental concerns. The White House’s AI Action Plan highlights the difficulty of building data centers quickly enough in the US due to existing permitting and regulatory processes, stating the system makes it “almost impossible to build this infrastructure…wiht the speed that is required.” Though, DNV’s analysis suggests the impact of US regulatory adjustments will be largely contained within the country, delaying emissions reductions by approximately five years, while the broader global trajectory toward cleaner energy remains on track.
DNV’s report emphasizes China’s pivotal role in the energy transition. ”The US accounts for one-seventh of global primary energy use and thus exerts some influence on the overall picture,” the report states, “Though, massive scale decarbonization of the Chinese economy continues, coupled with low-cost electro-technology exports from China to other regions.” These exports are accelerating the adoption of clean technologies worldwide.
While AI’s initial exponential growth in power demand is significant, the report anticipates a shift towards a more linear pattern. DNV projects that by 2040, AI’s electricity consumption will still be smaller than that of electric vehicle charging and space cooling globally.
