Intel’s Arrow Lake Refresh Falls Short of Breakthrough Expectations

New Processors to Feature Incremental Upgrades, Real Innovation Delayed Until 2026

Intel is gearing up for the launch of its Arrow Lake Refresh processor family, anticipated this October. However, recent information suggests these new chips will not deliver the significant leap forward some consumers were hoping for.

Incremental Upgrades Expected

Contrary to earlier leaks, it appears Arrow Lake Refresh will continue to utilize Intel 20A and TSMC’s N3B, N5P, and N6 lithographs. The core architecture, a combination of Lion Cove and Skymont, is also expected to remain unchanged.

While higher clock speeds are anticipated, a crucial component for AI performance, the Neural Processing Unit (NPU), will reportedly remain the same NPU 3 found in Meteor Lake and the standard Arrow Lake. This means AI performance is unlikely to see a substantial boost beyond the current ~13 TOPS.

Disappointment for Upgraders

The limited improvements mean that owners of Intel Core Ultra 200 series or even Raptor Lake processors may find little incentive to upgrade. The new LGA 1851 socket could, paradoxically, represent a less impactful platform in Intel’s history.

A significant technological leap is now deferred to 2026 with the arrival of the Nova Lake processors. These future chips are promised to feature an entirely new architecture along with advanced lithographies such as Intel 18a, signaling a more substantial generational advancement.

For context, the global AI chip market is projected to reach $120 billion by 2028, highlighting the increasing importance of NPU performance for modern computing tasks (Emergen Research, 2024).