Global Homicide rates Decline as Populations age, Challenging Perceptions of Rising Violence
Geneva, Switzerland - Contrary to widespread belief, the world is becoming less violent, with global homicide rates steadily declining alongside a shifting global demographic. A recent analysis of worldwide trends reveals a notable correlation between aging populations and a decrease in violent crime, particularly homicide.
While perceptions of increasing chaos dominate headlines, data indicates a slow but consistent reduction in humanity’s propensity to kill one another. The most robust predictor of violent offending remains age, and homicide is overwhelmingly committed by (and against) young men. A 2019 study published in PLOS ONE found that since the 1960s,most regions globally have experienced a decline in the proportion of their population aged 15-29. This aging trend accounts for a considerable portion of the recent drop in homicide rates. Essentially, as societies age, crime rates fall, all other factors being equal.
the global demographic transition – characterized by fewer children and longer lifespans – appears to be quietly contributing to a more peaceful world. This trend offers a crucial counter-narrative to anxieties about societal breakdown and highlights the importance of understanding demographic shifts in shaping global security. The prevalence of offending tends to concentrate in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods [4].
