The state of emergency does not frighten the crown. The biggest clearing would be the nationwide lockdown / BIG EXPERT – shares: a week from 5 October 2020

Crown she has a sobering sobriety behind her, which has led her to move above border 27.00 for euro. The shift was due not only to the decline in market rates associated with the weakening of summer betting that it would CNB could raise interest rates much earlier than previously forecast, but also worsen market sentiment in risky currencies. A little later, “local” nervousness associated with anti-proliferation measures was added coronavirus.


Since the beginning of October, the koruna market is against euros stabilized in the thirty-haler band. Although we have witnessed two breaks during the current week border 27.00 for euro, which was due to a slight reflection of market rates, in result however, it was only a short-term matter. Domestic currency prevents strengthening coronavirus uncertainty. For example, the designation of the Czech Republic as a new pandemic epicenter, which came from the Bloomberg agency, only intensifies the fear of repeating the March closure scenario. economy.

Fear is justified. Not improving at all coronavirus The situation really threatens to be Czech economy could plunge back into a nationwide lockdown (Israel be an example), which would be economically devastating.

Given the already rather fragile nature of economic recovery, both purely domestic and foreign-linked, this would not be a situation without parties economic policy makers. This would probably be the concern of the members of the Bank Board CNB Tomas Holub and Brand Mory, who, as the minutes of the September meeting showed central bank, are concerned that recent developments in the pandemic increase the likelihood of further monetary policy accommodation, including the possibility of using unconventional instruments. If this probability increased even more, it would correspond to this as well Czech crown exchange rate moving towards border 28.00 for euro.

So it is clear that coronavirus the situation combined with the measures will be the main determinant of the next direction in the coming days crown. The risks thus remain inclined to a possible weakening, with domestic factors playing a key role.

Foreign ones can also have an influence, for example in connection with the upcoming American presidents elections. If we focus on the risky currencies of emerging markets, it is clear that this basket is gradually beginning to appreciate the possibility of winning the Democratic candidate Biden. This is especially evident in side growing mexican peso against dollar and, conversely, debilitating Russian ruble. When crown, which since the end of September showed against the Greens banknotes within the region the smallest shift, we would in the context of the coming elections they did not expect significant movements. On the one hand, it is not geopolitically affected, but above all, it is still in the clutches coronaviruswhich will not allow her to strengthen. This would probably be the case even if we saw a more significant strengthening of pro-cyclical currencies, which, in our opinion, will not happen in the coming days.

So what awaits us? In short, until Czech coronavirus the situation does not calm down, to a more significant strengthening crown below border 27.00 for euro we can forget. So far, we can only hope that there will be no need for a new anti-covid adopted today measures it was not further tightened.

Jan Berka, Roklen Holding


Opinions of experts on the future development of selected shares in Czech capital market within one month and a half years, in the week from 5. 10. 2020.


Estimate for the period from 5 October 2020 do 2. 11. 2020 (1 month)

Name Attractiveness Price

(Monday)
Definitely

buy
Buy None

action
Sell Definitely

sell
MONETA MB 33 53,6 1 3 1 1 0
FIRST GROUP BANK 25 485,9 0 3 3 0 0
COMMERCIAL BANK 25 490 0 3 3 0 0
ČEZ 25 436,5 0 3 3 0 0
O2 C.R. 25 219 0 3 3 0 0
CETV 25 97,5 1 1 4 0 0
VIG 17 524 0 2 4 0 0
PHILIP MORRIS CR 17 13 600 1 1 3 1 0
AVAST 8 156,9 0 1 5 0 0
PFNONWOVENS -8 766 0 0 5 1 0


Estimate for the period from 5 October 2020 do 5. 4. 2021 (6 months)

Name Attractiveness Price

(Monday)
Definitely

buy
Buy None

action
Sell Definitely

sell
MONETA MB 42 53,6 1 3 2 0 0
FIRST GROUP BANK 42 485,9 1 3 2 0 0
COMMERCIAL BANK 42 490 1 3 2 0 0
VIG 33 524 0 4 2 0 0
AVAST 33 156,9 1 2 3 0 0
ČEZ 25 436,5 1 2 2 1 0
O2 C.R. 25 219 2 0 3 1 0
PHILIP MORRIS CR 25 13 600 0 3 3 0 0
CETV 8 97,5 1 0 4 1 0
PFNONWOVENS 0 766 0 0 6 0 0

This week’s reviews were by:

  • Michal Chrvala
  • Jan Němeček – BH Securities
  • Marco Marinucci – General Investments CEE, an investment company
  • Libor Stockings – GRANT CAPITAL
  • Jiří Zendulka – Kurzy.cz
  • Aleš Charvát – UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia

Statistics deals with ten of the most liquid titles traded on BCPP. The tables summarize the estimates of the experts listed. The “Price” column shows Monday’s exchange rate for selected titles, on which the experts based their estimates. After this period of one or six months, the estimates will be compared with this value to evaluate the success. The “Attraction” column shows the weighted average number of individual opinions and can range from -100 to +100. The number of opinions “Sell”, “Buy”, etc. is published in the next columns.

Note: Evaluations take the form of non-binding opinions as to whether a particular one is valuable paper it would be appropriate to buy or sell in view of the expected development in the next one and a half years. However, the reality may differ significantly from the experts’ estimate. Experts or
Kurzy.cz
they do not assume any responsibility for these differences.


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