COMMENT
Gas and Oil Prices Decline Amid Shifting Market Dynamics
Table of Contents
Bratislava, Slovakia - November 27, 2025 – The cost of natural gas and crude oil is experiencing a notable downturn, offering potential relief to consumers and businesses as winter approaches. Benchmark TTF natural gas futures have fallen, while crude oil prices have also decreased, influenced by factors including milder weather forecasts and evolving geopolitical assessments.
The price reductions arrive at a critical juncture as Europe braces for the heating season and continues to navigate the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. Fluctuations in energy prices directly impact household budgets, industrial production costs, and broader inflation rates. Experts, including Matej Bajzík, are closely monitoring thes developments, as sustained lower prices could ease economic pressures, while a reversal could exacerbate existing challenges. The energy market remains sensitive to geopolitical events, supply disruptions, and global demand shifts, making accurate forecasting challenging.
Recent market activity shows a softening in commodity prices. Natural gas, a key component of home heating and electricity generation, has seen downward pressure.Together, crude oil, essential for transportation and various industrial processes, is also trending lower. XTB analysts are attributing the decline to a combination of factors, including increased storage levels and expectations of reduced demand.
the situation is further complex by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which continues to disrupt energy supply chains and create uncertainty in the market. While Europe has diversified its energy sources, reliance on external suppliers remains a vulnerability. Investors are also keeping a watchful eye on gold prices, often considered a safe-haven asset during times of economic instability, as a potential indicator of market sentiment.
Though, these shifts are far from homogeneous: while some assets are experiencing growth, others are facing corrections, reflecting changes in supply and demand expectations over the medium term.
Impact of peace negotiations in Ukraine on raw materials:
Ropa (Brent)
On the oil market, the prospect of peace clearly had a negative impact on oil prices, as investors are beginning to consider the possibility of a gradual normalization of Russian and Ukrainian flows and a further increase in supply, which currently exceeds demand. Oil Brent it has weakened nearly seven percent since the end of October, having fallen 4.5 percent since last Wednesday, boosted by news of a possible peace between Russia and Ukraine.
Natural gas
Natural gas traded in Europe (TTF) also followed a negative trend and weakened by more than seven percent since last Wednesday, reaching new lows this year.
Another critically important news was that, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), the level of gas storage in the European Union reached approximately 83 percent of capacity as of October 1, 2025.
Chart: Dutch natural gas futures TTF.Source: ICE
Precious and industrial metals
In the industrial metals and strategic raw materials sector, the picture is more diverse. On the one hand, the decrease in the extreme risk of logistics problems in the Black Sea contributes to the stabilization of supply chains and reduces short-term volatility. Conversely, the peaceful scenario creates conditions for new investment plans in the field of mining and infrastructure, especially in Ukraine.
Markets react by falling oil prices in hopes of an end to the war. Do you believe that an agreement will be reached in the coming months?
At the same time, it is interesting that the price of gold it reacted only minimally and maintained its growth trend. Despite the fact that gold is considered a safe haven that usually benefits in times of uncertainty and war, the announcement of the possibility of an imminent end to the conflict did not cause any negative movement. Currently, the price of the metal sits just over five percent below all-time highs and continues to recover from recent downward corrections.
impact on European stock markets
European shares rose on wednesday, boosted by rising expectations of a US interest rate cut and positive signals surrounding peace talks in Ukraine. Investors were also waiting for the publication of the British budget.
European stock indices showed a growth of around one percent – STOXX 600 +0.91%; DAX 40 +0.97%; FTSE 100 +0.78%; CAC 40 +0.83%; FTSE MIB +0.95%; IBEX 35 +1.08%.
The most significant positive impact is visible in cyclical and economic cycle-sensitive sectors,especially in banking,the automotive industry,industry and energy-intensive industries,which benefit from more predictable energy prices and a substantially more favorable perception of macroeconomic risk.
In short, a truce between Putin and Zelensky would end one of the longest-running geopolitical risks of recent years. However, its impact on market movements may be limited, as markets may have already largely factored these events into prices.
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