“What we don’t measure is the speed” at which the failure curve will start to rise again, estimates the president of the employers’ organization, François Asselin.
CPME President François Asselin said on Tuesday that he expected a rise in business failures in the coming months, a phenomenon “normal» as the indicator has been sailing at a particularly low level since the Covid-19 pandemic. With 30,915 failures recorded between May 2021 and April 2022 by the Banque de France, “we are in a completely paradoxical situation“, Judged the head of the employers’ organization during a meeting organized in Paris by the Association of Journalists of Small and Medium Enterprises (AJPME).
Despite more than two years of health crisis and the war that has been raging in Ukraine since the end of February, business failures remain well below the 50,000 mark, which the indicator was close to in early 2020, before the pandemic. With the progressive extinction of the support systems deployed by the State to support businesses during the health crisis (Solidarity Fund, loans guaranteed by the State/PGE), “we will have to expect an increase in claims“, anticipated Tuesday François Asselin. “What’s going to happen is normal even if it’s dramaticfor the business leaders concerned, he tempered. “What we don’t measure is speedat which point the default curve will begin to rise again. “If at the end of all this, we have a loss ratio that stabilizes around 50 to 60,000 companies, frankly (…), we will have cushioned these consecutive crises“, concluded François Asselin.
According to data from the Banque de France, corporate insolvencies have been rising slightly each month since February. But, “despite the questions linked to the Ukrainian crisis, there is no particular alertAs for the solvency of French companies, assured Tuesday the credit mediator at the Banque de France, Frédéric Visnovsky. The first repayments of the PGE are “passed correctly“And the device should not generate more than 4.5 billion euros in gross losses for the State, he assured.
An “almost abnormal” number of failures
«We have no weak signals that would say that French companies are in great difficultyadded Virginie Normand, Director of Specialized Markets at the Banque Populaire. Those experiencing financial turmoilwere often already in a bit of trouble before the crisislinked to the Covid-19 pandemic, she said. But it’s “almost abnormalthat the number of failures remains so low, warned Virginie Normand. Signs of a changing situation, payment delays between companies “start to stretch again” after having almost fallen back at the end of 2021 to their pre-pandemic level, according to the feedback collected by the CPME.
In addition, “in April, 86% of our members said that they could not pass on the increase in their production costs (linked to high inflation, editor’s note) to their selling prices“, underlined François Asselin. Its default predictions for France in any case reflect those formulated by the insurer Allianz Trade at the global level in mid-May. In a study on the financial health of companies around the world, Allianz Trade said it expected a rise in insolvencies of 10% in 2022 and 14% in 2023. The Banque de France is due to publish new figures on Wednesday. on the insolvencies of French companies in May.