Thai Exports Face Headwinds as US Tariffs Shift Trade, Krungthai Compass Reports
BANGKOK, October 26, 2025 - Thailand’s export sector is facing increasing pressure due to shifting trade patterns influenced by US import tax policies, according to a recent analysis by Krungthai Compass. While August imports rose 15.8% year-over-year to $29.7076 billion-accelerating from 5.1% YoY in July-the momentum is expected to slow as front-loading of purchases diminishes and the impact of US tariffs becomes clearer.
The import expansion encompassed all categories, including capital products (+29.5% YoY), consumer goods (+16.9% YoY), raw materials and semi-finished goods (+12.7% YoY), vehicle products (+5.3%), and a contraction in fuel products (-5.6% YoY).
However, Krungthai Compass notes that Thai exports contracted 2.9% month-over-month in August, marking the third consecutive month of decline, mirroring trends in other exporting nations.This slowdown follows the end of accelerated purchasing driven by anticipated US customs tax increases. Thailand experienced a meaningful drop in exports to the US,falling 9.8% MoM for the second consecutive month. Vietnam also saw its frist contraction in six months, with exports down 2.0% MoM. US imports of key Thai products decreased 3.6% MoM for two months running,and automotive exports fell 2.8% MoM.
Krungthai Compass anticipates that Thai exporters will need to reallocate focus away from the US market towards countries with lower tax rates.Data suggests a shift in US import sources, with increased imports from nations like the United kingdom (up 7.2% MoM in July) which have lower customs duties.
further risks include uncertainty surrounding potential sectoral tariffs and a generally weakening global economic outlook, which is dampening worldwide demand. The UNDP1 forecasts that global exports will be negatively impacted by US import tax policies, particularly affecting Asian countries reliant on the US market, including Vietnam (-19.2%), Thailand (-12.7%), and Japan (-10.9%).
